Comments on: Stock market predictor http://political-economy.com/stock-market-predictor/ Economics and Politics - the real story Fri, 18 May 2012 14:02:40 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Robb Jensen http://political-economy.com/stock-market-predictor/comment-page-1/#comment-5284 Robb Jensen Wed, 02 Nov 2011 23:15:57 +0000 http://www.political-economy.com/?p=346#comment-5284 I also use a similar strategy however I use these charts to pick my buy and sell prices. But first I use the financials to choose a solid company. I also use a similar strategy however I use these charts to pick my buy and sell prices. But first I use the financials to choose a solid company.

]]> By: Mark Biernat http://political-economy.com/stock-market-predictor/comment-page-1/#comment-3469 Mark Biernat Mon, 25 Jul 2011 12:19:37 +0000 http://www.political-economy.com/?p=346#comment-3469 I use Scottrade, however, that does not mean anything. You have to choose a broker based on your needs. TradeKing I have heard is good also, but not as well known. For me, there are four factors in choosing a stock trading company. 1) Cost - this depends on how many trades I make a month so do I want a flat fee or per trade fee. ( Right now I have not been trading stocks much as I have other things going on in my life. I have to get back into it. Just not trading or even writing about stocks because I might move from Europe to the USA and this is taking some of my focus). 2) Execution - does the company give you a fair execution of the trade in terms of price. Is it trading at 20 dollars a share and when you get your trade confirmation is the trade at 20.5 for example or something crazy. I guess this comes from peronal experience. I would hope that trade execution is always honest a it is trade via a computer. 3) Customer service. This is clear. I use to use Vanguard but had a customer service issue with them that was so bad it movitated me to swtich brokers. I also use Fidelity and a few others but so far have been pleased with Scottrade for like te years. 4) Online website - Does the company have an easy website to navigate. Just because it is well known means nothing. I like the philosophy of 'don't make me think'. That is I do not want to use my brain to find my stock positions, performace, to trade etc. If I am going to be hanging out online trading stocks I want a good interface. I also like brokers that have some of their own research. I know stock research is all over the web and you can use any major financial website to get bacic information, but I also like brokers, even disount brokers that provide their own research. It is always good to read. Insurance is not a factor for me. Why? I am not at a point where I have billions of dollars. Most firms have a mix of Federal and private insurance. I think most are pretty well looked at by the SEC, but I still would not personally go with a small fly by night stock brokerage firm, but rather one well known and reviewed. Another minor issues is how good is their money market in terms of interest and safty also can you access your cash account with a debit card or easy cash access, almost like a bank. I would be open to hear what others think are good discount brokerage firms. I use to be a broker for Merril Lynch when full service was more in vogue and of course I could not recommend anything but a discount broker for the little guy. I use Scottrade, however, that does not mean anything. You have to choose a broker based on your needs.

TradeKing I have heard is good also, but not as well known. For me, there are four factors in choosing a stock trading company.
1) Cost – this depends on how many trades I make a month so do I want a flat fee or per trade fee. ( Right now I have not been trading stocks much as I have other things going on in my life. I have to get back into it. Just not trading or even writing about stocks because I might move from Europe to the USA and this is taking some of my focus).
2) Execution – does the company give you a fair execution of the trade in terms of price. Is it trading at 20 dollars a share and when you get your trade confirmation is the trade at 20.5 for example or something crazy. I guess this comes from peronal experience. I would hope that trade execution is always honest a it is trade via a computer.
3) Customer service. This is clear. I use to use Vanguard but had a customer service issue with them that was so bad it movitated me to swtich brokers. I also use Fidelity and a few others but so far have been pleased with Scottrade for like te years.
4) Online website – Does the company have an easy website to navigate. Just because it is well known means nothing. I like the philosophy of ‘don’t make me think’. That is I do not want to use my brain to find my stock positions, performace, to trade etc. If I am going to be hanging out online trading stocks I want a good interface.

I also like brokers that have some of their own research. I know stock research is all over the web and you can use any major financial website to get bacic information, but I also like brokers, even disount brokers that provide their own research. It is always good to read.

Insurance is not a factor for me. Why? I am not at a point where I have billions of dollars. Most firms have a mix of Federal and private insurance. I think most are pretty well looked at by the SEC, but I still would not personally go with a small fly by night stock brokerage firm, but rather one well known and reviewed.

Another minor issues is how good is their money market in terms of interest and safty also can you access your cash account with a debit card or easy cash access, almost like a bank.

I would be open to hear what others think are good discount brokerage firms. I use to be a broker for Merril Lynch when full service was more in vogue and of course I could not recommend anything but a discount broker for the little guy.

]]> By: Angela http://political-economy.com/stock-market-predictor/comment-page-1/#comment-3465 Angela Mon, 25 Jul 2011 07:48:31 +0000 http://www.political-economy.com/?p=346#comment-3465 Do you think TradeKing is a better alternative to Scottrade? Do you think TradeKing is a better alternative to Scottrade?

]]> By: Mark Biernat http://political-economy.com/stock-market-predictor/comment-page-1/#comment-2294 Mark Biernat Sat, 16 Apr 2011 15:24:22 +0000 http://www.political-economy.com/?p=346#comment-2294 There are many types of diversification, such as, market neural investing, beta investing, diversification across sectors, asset classes. There is diversification globally and even dollar cost averaging is time diversification. So it is a very broad term I think it is very unwise to bet the farm on one particular asset class and limited number of assets, but it depends what your objectives are. For example, if you are all set in life and have a house and money in the bank and income coming in and you are investing for high profits, if you have a system that works you do not need diversification. But if your 401k is all you have I would not do anything but follow solid rules of investing and portfolio analysis. I remember this one cowboy at when I was a broker at Merril Lynch. He was running the Technology fund in NYC and with a few good quarters he was a hero. he did not believe in diversification. Than his fund tanked and he faded away and I never saw him do any money management since. Every maverick out there that things they know how to bet the system is a dangerous investor. Even me, I follow based time test rules but I am not going to invest in one stock, but maybe within those strategies I follow but a few or at least dollar cost average, and keep cash in a money market. But if you are playing the market with excess fund and more on par with going to Vegas, go for it, but it depends on your risk preference and ability to absorb losses. I personally like to take risks I should not, but only with money I can afford to lose. There are many types of diversification, such as, market neural investing, beta investing, diversification across sectors, asset classes. There is diversification globally and even dollar cost averaging is time diversification. So it is a very broad term
I think it is very unwise to bet the farm on one particular asset class and limited number of assets, but it depends what your objectives are.
For example, if you are all set in life and have a house and money in the bank and income coming in and you are investing for high profits, if you have a system that works you do not need diversification. But if your 401k is all you have I would not do anything but follow solid rules of investing and portfolio analysis.
I remember this one cowboy at when I was a broker at Merril Lynch. He was running the Technology fund in NYC and with a few good quarters he was a hero. he did not believe in diversification. Than his fund tanked and he faded away and I never saw him do any money management since.
Every maverick out there that things they know how to bet the system is a dangerous investor.
Even me, I follow based time test rules but I am not going to invest in one stock, but maybe within those strategies I follow but a few or at least dollar cost average, and keep cash in a money market.
But if you are playing the market with excess fund and more on par with going to Vegas, go for it, but it depends on your risk preference and ability to absorb losses. I personally like to take risks I should not, but only with money I can afford to lose.

]]> By: Jesse http://political-economy.com/stock-market-predictor/comment-page-1/#comment-2287 Jesse Fri, 15 Apr 2011 19:16:30 +0000 http://www.political-economy.com/?p=346#comment-2287 Leverage and owning a single stock (what you are calling an "undiversified portfolio") are not at all the same thing. Leverage and owning a single stock (what you are calling an “undiversified portfolio”) are not at all the same thing.

]]> By: Mark Biernat http://political-economy.com/stock-market-predictor/comment-page-1/#comment-2263 Mark Biernat Thu, 14 Apr 2011 15:17:56 +0000 http://www.political-economy.com/?p=346#comment-2263 Number 7 or the moving average my key predictor. The rest is common sense advice. I do believe in diversification, not to get rich but to reduce risk. If you want to play the leverage game in an undiversified portfolio, it can be super profits, but also not. What you write about arbitrage is interesting. Number 7 or the moving average my key predictor. The rest is common sense advice. I do believe in diversification, not to get rich but to reduce risk.
If you want to play the leverage game in an undiversified portfolio, it can be super profits, but also not.
What you write about arbitrage is interesting.

]]> By: Jesse http://political-economy.com/stock-market-predictor/comment-page-1/#comment-2262 Jesse Thu, 14 Apr 2011 14:31:58 +0000 http://www.political-economy.com/?p=346#comment-2262 Only number 7 of your list has any (arguably) predictive value. In fact urging diversification (your Number 5) has been shown by recent events to be useless and a false security. The CAPM is garbage, despite what the Nobel Prize committee thinks of it. See what Nassim Taleb has written on this, or what happened to ALL asset classes in 2008. Hint, they all got killed together. In fact, I think your best bet considering you like to look at companies with "Money and ideas" (Number 4) is the pairs trade. Even if you like a company's product and can read a balance sheet (good luck!) you still won't know whether a particular stock is under/overvalued. The best way to get around this is a simple arbitrage. Buy/sell a stock against a particular competitor, or the sector ETF. If you've ratio-ed the pair correctly you'll have also eliminated systematic risk. Careful though as this can be commission intensive if you're actively trading the pair. Only number 7 of your list has any (arguably) predictive value.

In fact urging diversification (your Number 5) has been shown by recent events to be useless and a false security. The CAPM is garbage, despite what the Nobel Prize committee thinks of it. See what Nassim Taleb has written on this, or what happened to ALL asset classes in 2008. Hint, they all got killed together.

In fact, I think your best bet considering you like to look at companies with “Money and ideas” (Number 4) is the pairs trade. Even if you like a company’s product and can read a balance sheet (good luck!) you still won’t know whether a particular stock is under/overvalued. The best way to get around this is a simple arbitrage. Buy/sell a stock against a particular competitor, or the sector ETF. If you’ve ratio-ed the pair correctly you’ll have also eliminated systematic risk. Careful though as this can be commission intensive if you’re actively trading the pair.

]]> By: Oscar Wilson http://political-economy.com/stock-market-predictor/comment-page-1/#comment-479 Oscar Wilson Thu, 15 Jul 2010 16:31:06 +0000 http://www.political-economy.com/?p=346#comment-479 Mark, Stan Weinstein stated several times in his book to never purchase a stock if it was selling for under it's 30 day moving average and was adamant about using stop losses. Do you agree with him? Oscar Mark,

Stan Weinstein stated several times in his book to never purchase a stock if it was selling for under it’s 30 day moving average and was adamant about using stop losses. Do you agree with him?

Oscar

]]> By: Mark Biernat http://political-economy.com/stock-market-predictor/comment-page-1/#comment-441 Mark Biernat Sun, 13 Jun 2010 17:51:42 +0000 http://www.political-economy.com/?p=346#comment-441 I have used in the past, the 50 and 200 as Stan Weinstein recommends. It depends on the volatility of the stock. Some stocks will dance around these moving averages all the time as they have a high beta. However, other stocks will rarely break them. Look at the beta and determine what you want to use. I prefer the 12 month moving average on the S&P index as my main sign for being in or out. I prefer this as there are historically very few false signals. Shorting is an art of its own. If you are going to short just make sure the trend for the stock you are shorting is pretty well established or you have some point you know when you are going to get out, either mental stops or real ones or covered with options. I check MSN's bottom rates stocks on stock scouter, rated 1. I do this as a reality check. I know people like Stan Weinstein says you should trade just on technicals but I trade on both. valuengine.com also as a very good quantitive engine for doing reality checks or narrowing the universe of stocks you are thinking about going short (or long). I was using valengine for a long time. I am not as actively trading or as disciplined as I am writing language learning software and not as focused. I started trading stocks as a teen on money I made working during the summer and have trade for the last 30 years. The first ten years I made and lost money, mostly on luck, but at the time I though it was brains. I worked in the business and read everything I could on trading and at this point believe in a more disciplined approach. I believe in disciplined investing and try to put my ego aside. I use the 12 months on the market as whole and do reality checks with quantitative engines. Then I use my common sense of what stocks I like. I do well with this. It came from experience. But now like I said I am focused on a few other things so not as strict, I hope my stocks do well. :) I have used in the past, the 50 and 200 as Stan Weinstein recommends. It depends on the volatility of the stock. Some stocks will dance around these moving averages all the time as they have a high beta. However, other stocks will rarely break them. Look at the beta and determine what you want to use. I prefer the 12 month moving average on the S&P index as my main sign for being in or out. I prefer this as there are historically very few false signals.
Shorting is an art of its own. If you are going to short just make sure the trend for the stock you are shorting is pretty well established or you have some point you know when you are going to get out, either mental stops or real ones or covered with options.
I check MSN’s bottom rates stocks on stock scouter, rated 1. I do this as a reality check. I know people like Stan Weinstein says you should trade just on technicals but I trade on both. valuengine.com also as a very good quantitive engine for doing reality checks or narrowing the universe of stocks you are thinking about going short (or long). I was using valengine for a long time.
I am not as actively trading or as disciplined as I am writing language learning software and not as focused.
I started trading stocks as a teen on money I made working during the summer and have trade for the last 30 years. The first ten years I made and lost money, mostly on luck, but at the time I though it was brains. I worked in the business and read everything I could on trading and at this point believe in a more disciplined approach. I believe in disciplined investing and try to put my ego aside. I use the 12 months on the market as whole and do reality checks with quantitative engines. Then I use my common sense of what stocks I like. I do well with this.
It came from experience. But now like I said I am focused on a few other things so not as strict, I hope my stocks do well. :)

]]> By: David http://political-economy.com/stock-market-predictor/comment-page-1/#comment-440 David Sun, 13 Jun 2010 16:35:28 +0000 http://www.political-economy.com/?p=346#comment-440 Why you don't trust on the 200 moving average, and use a 12 month moving average? Do you think that the 200 moving average gives you false signals? Another thing, what do you think in about going short on stocks when the 12 month moving average cut down the price line? Why you don’t trust on the 200 moving average, and use a 12 month moving average? Do you think that the 200 moving average gives you false signals?

Another thing, what do you think in about going short on stocks when the 12 month moving average cut down the price line?

]]>