Where is Osama Bin Laden hiding? Why has the USA not captured Osama? What is Al Qaeda’s plan?  There is a lot of confusion about this and the purpose of this post is to clear it up.

Facts on what happened to Usama

  • Update to this post on May 1st 2011 Osama Bin Laden was killed in a firefight with US forces (Navy Seals) in Pakistan.  He was an architect of so much evil. He caused so many innocent Americans to lose their lives (and other allied people’s). He he hijacked Islam to propagate his doctrine of darkness.
  • Is Osama really dead? Yes. DNA will prove it.
  • Will there be revenge? I hope not, but there this was a serious blow to the Al Qaeda becasue they swear personal aliagence to him. Wikileaks claims there will be a nuclear revenge attack.  It would be a nuclear threat to Europe if Bin Laden were to die. I say do not worry. The treat was years ago and the USA has dismantled much of Al Qaeda. They can make claims to scare people, but do not worry, you need a network and operation to carry things out.
  • As I thought the US found him with a tip, maybe money was involved.
  • He died on the same day as another man full of anger on May 1st 1945.
  • ‘Bin Laden was not a Muslim leader. He was a mass murderer of Muslims’ – Obama
  • The USA is not at war with Islam. Only the people who twisted that peaceful religion into something it is not.

Of course it would be ridiculous for me to say I know for sure. I do not know, nor does anyone.  I have an idea and will argue not only where he is but why the USA has not found him.  I will even give you a map to show you where he is now. This is posts is different from everything you read that, makes a general comment that he is living in some remote north East corner of Afghanistan or Western region of Pakistan. This post looks at various Osama theories and explains why they are not true and tells you why the US has not capture him, yet.

Why the USA thinks its important to capture, neutralize or vaporize Osama Bin Laden? Did you ever see the movie 13th Warrior? The answer to defeating the enemy was of course taking the head of the enemy, not the worker bees. Stanley McChrystal the former lead General in Afghanistan stated that as long as he was alive al-Qaeda would still be inspired and working to destroy the USA. That is why Clinton, Bush and now Obama want to capture him.

Bin Laden is hiding in Pakistan and other ideas

Here are the facts around Osama:

  • Bin Laden in Pakistan – In 2002 the CSmonitor reported that Osama Bin Laden was able to sneak over the Afghanistan border into Pakistan. CSmonitor is a pretty conservative paper in terms of reporting. It is not like reading the Drudge report (which I enjoy) or a UK tabloid like the Sun. They usually will not report something unless it is beyond the point of speculation. Their conservative approach is influenced by the fact they are a newspaper which strives to be conservative and accurate as anything less could discredit their religious foundation. Therefore, if they had a source and they reported this, there is a good chance it happened. The reason Bin Laden choose Pakistan was because the US was looking in Afghanistan. Bin Laden does not care about national boundaries of course. The US military has to. It makes perfect sense and that is what I would do if was Bin Laden, that is just escape across the border into Switzerland, I mean Pakistan. Pakistan puts itself out there as an ally of the USA in the war against terror, but is it?
  • Bin Laden is dead – Various News papers have reported Bin Laden is not living. It makes sensational news to be able to report his death. It is not true. It is a news story the world will talk about and there is no way to confirm if is not true. Easy publicity. You could quote some comment made by some official.  Most everyone in the military believes he is still living. He is a relatively young man (50s) and besides reported Kidney problems, lives the life of an ascetic. Your kidney’s have a huge reservoir of nephrons. You can have up to 90% of your Kidneys with a problem before you really start to feel it. So unless it was very progressive, this would not have stopped that mountain goat.  It is pretty well confirmed he escaped the Tora Bora attacks. If Bin Laden really was dead there would be a lot of circumstantial evidence. He would be declared a martyr. There is no proof only lose cheap talk. I believe that claims need to be backed up by facts, tangible concrete facts. I am no conspiracy theorist. If he died he would not be showing up in videos every few years referencing recent events like the floods in Pakistan. The reason he does not make frequent media appearances is he is not a US President that needs to show his face.
  • Why is he healthier than reported? You can hold your breath thinking he will pass on from natural causes, but I am not going to. He is an ascetic, eating fresh food and living an active lifestyle in the fresh mountain air. Not someone who would just stop breathing as much as many people would like this.  This is not someone who is likely to die prematurely, unless taken out by a US military strike.Time, national boarders, and confirming his existence by being on the media has no meaning for him. In the end, Nasser al-Bahri a former body guard claims he is alive.
  • Usama’s purpose – He is a man with a purpose and will continue to influence the world for many years to come unless he is captured. He wants to free the Middle East of all non-Muslim military operations and this most likely includes Israel. He has caused so much pain in the world. Terror and killing is not from God. A just war is almost always an oxymoron. His purpose can not be from God, why? Because God is love. If you were a parent you would not want one child to kill another, no matter what. We are all children of a loving God. Gandhi was a wise man and advocated peaceful resistance and pray and fasting. In contrast, Bin Laden wants change by the sword.  Remember not all Muslims are united and certainly most do not support his radical ideas. Even in Saudi Arabia over 90% of the people do not support him.  Islam is a religion of peace because it is about submission to God’s will, and God is always about peace and love.  Faith is knowing in your heart that God is love, peace and forgiveness. However, by promoting terror Bin Laden hijacked that religion and caused many good humble Muslims a feeling of shame.
  • Al Qaeda’s plan – Draw the USA into foreign wars and drain their resources like they did with the Soviet Union until it collapses and an Islamic state can replace it. I can tell you the USA will not collapse, at least from this. The USA is based on flexibility and adaptation.  It is a like a tree that bends in the wind and has deep roots. The Soviet Union was something different.
  • Is US involvement in the Middle East good? What are we the British Empire with the motto ‘the sun never sets on the Union jack, and make the world England’? I am a libertarian basically and do not believe in foreign wars. Iraq was a waste. Places like Yeman and Syria and Saudi Arabia have more terrorists than Iraq did. Defeating the Taliban in Afghanistan maybe was important, I do not know. I think the money and resources should be going into the USA.  The trillions spend on those wars could have been spent on high technology and we might have captured Bin Laden by now. A ten year war of attrition is was exactly what Al Qaeda wanted us to do. That is fight a war of attrition until it starts to wear down the average American economically. I am a patriot, but I believe US military policy should be focused on developing more sophisticated technology than fighting wars of attrition with our guys on the ground like we always do.  Upgrade and out class the enemy to win. Again, what are we the British Empire in the 19th century? Military intelligence is another oxymoron.
  • American cowboys and bounty hunters – Gary Faulkner and the likes are a bit out there, but at least they were looking in the right place. He was hoping to look in Chitral. Others also have come close, but were detained. The reason he was going to Chitral was it is far from the Federal Administered Tribal Areas. A very good place to hide.  There have been a handful of others. I think most of these guys care less about the 52 million dollar reward than the rush of doing something like capturing him.
  • Psychics and Bin Laden – What about psychics and their reports, there have been scores of claims. I do not believe in psychics. They are all 100% fake. I believe in God but I am not a super naturalism. They are all taking guesses in hopes that they will get credit if they find him in the location they guessed. This is similar to newspapers who report information based on speculation. I do not give too much credibility to conspiracy theories either.
  • Bin Laden and terrorism – Debate if you want if he was linked to 9/11, he was. Further read Wikileaks, you can read first hand about his meetings with terrorists in Pakistan and organization of bombings in Afghanistan. Look at the FBI’s list of crimes on Osama Bin Laden.
  • Bin Laden is not in Pakistan – Many ideas around that he is in Somalia or Iran etc. Not true. Far too remote locations or politically not feasible. He knows the mountains and this is where he feels at home. He is not going risk too far from his lair.
  • The US government does not want to find him – What about the idea that the government does not want to find him or they want to time the catch to swing an election. It’s not true. The US government does want to find Bin Laden. Although they ended the special task force dedicated to that purpose a couple of years ago. They did that as it was getting nowhere.
  • Are the use of unmanned drones ethical? – I am not a big war guy, but I believe in high technology. I believe the USA has to be light years ahead in terms of technology and use this to defend the USA from terrorists and architects of evil.  Why put our guys at risk, just fly drones into areas to attack priority US targets.  We should not be building fleets of submarines but fleets of drones. If we use satellites, high technology and drones, it will save many lives, especially innocent lives. I am not a war person but is someone is planning to blow up cities and destroy lives why not take him out?

Why has the US not captured Osama?

It seems hard to believe we have not found this guy in ten years.  Here is the reason why. People have the wrong idea about the USA. We can do a lot but we can not do everything and anything. This is a key point and the real reason why we have not arrested this international terrorist.It is hard for many Americans to believe this, as many people think the real world begins and ends with America. I am a patriot but I do not think America can do anything. It is just a great democracy but not omnipotent.

Consider this: the only way we found Saddam Hussein was we paid someone to show us his hole. He was hiding on top of combined NATO forces in a developed area, and we still did not find him without paying a local.

Bin Laden is far more clever, has had a lifetime of experience hiding, and is in the mountains, almost impenetrable by anything more than light patrols and drones. Actually it is hard to put drones up there.  Drones have limits. Why not just search the mountains? Not easy. If you are an outdoors man you will understand how nature just shallows things up. For example, I remember there was a plane that when down in New Hampshire. They never found it. This is a plan in the USA not far from Boston and NYC. They never found it.  If you are a person in the mountains you can hide until you make a mistake. Many criminals in the USA do this. They caught that bomber in NC a few years back only because he went down into town to eat some KFC. General Patton said fortifications are monuments to our stupidity compared to natural defenses like mountains.

Did you ever see the movie Lost Horizon? A fictitious city was hidden in those same mountains.

But even if people are hiding in very civilized areas it is hard to find people. Consider these top US and NATO priority targets. Whitey Bulger living in retirement in Italy and no one has found him.  Or that Serbian war criminal living in Europe openly and no one found him for years. They would change their appearance and that is it.
You can be found, only if you let people find you.

The Allies could not find old Adolf when he was in his lair. This was in the middle of Europe with many spies that spoke German but we never located him.

The problem with Osama is he is zero tech. He does not use cell phones and computers. He is using runners like the Aztec mail system, that is people to people.   He leaves no trail and protected not by an army. It is basically just him and about ten body guards. He is is the figure head leader of Al Qaeda and operational plans are done by others. He blends in perfectly like an animal. It is very hard to hunt such a clever fox. He stays inside during the day and he moves by night so is not spotted by satellite, planes or drones. He is deep in territory controlled by his people. How can you catch him?

Why have we not caputred him? I think basically he fled to Pakistan and the government there protects him, or at least does not try to hard. Further, since he is in Pakistan no one on our side has really tried too hard as it is a politcally messy situation.

Why the Pakistanis do not get him?

  • He really is hard to find. Again if you have ever spend time in the mountain you will understand what I am talking about.
  • We give so much cash to Pakistan do they really want to jeopardizes this by finding a primary target.
  • Pakistani people are Muslim and most find his methods horrible, but there are sympathizers who might help him.

Lets cut the political correctness here, is the Pakistani government really motivated to find him Usama? I think they generally know where he is.

Where is Osama Bin Laden

Bin Laden is currently as the above map indicated in the targeted area.

OK So where in the world is Osama Bin Laden?

According to latest NATO intelligence his current location is the Chitral district and also the Kurram valley moving between these two areas. Actually anywhere in the Hindu Kush mountains, and boarders of countries do not matter, he could even be as far north as Takikistan. However, not too far from Binladenstan as he does not want to out of communication with his operatives. He has limits, he is only a man and he can be defeated. Every leader that is declared as unbeatable, falls.

Will the US military ever get him and end the war on terror? I think if they keep pumping out drones and use high technology they will get him. Conventional methods do not work. If they want to get him they need high-tech drones and satellites and long distance listening devices and other methods even more, rather than conventional armies.

A basic military strategy is take the high ground. Every tactician knows this. Bin Laden has done this in the mountains. If the USA wants to win they have to take a higher ground, that is high technology and satellites and planes above his mountains. It is all about taking the high ground, not sending our guys up on foot.

The war on terror will fade away when old men stop beating drums to send poor youth to their end. This is why the USA still is trying to get Osama and other Al Qaeda leaders to prevent more loss of innocent lost of life.