US presidential election 2012

Your ultimate guide to the United States presidential election of 2012.

It covers the candidates and the probabilities of each being elected to office. I also layout the issues in a clear non-partisan way. This is an objective non-partial guide to the US presidential elections. The most important thing is this guide is simple and clear.

The United States presidential election of 2012 is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. The electoral college election is on December 17, 2012. The presidential election will be on the same day as the election of the house of representatives and 33 senate seats. There will be 11 gubernatorial races and a number of state representative races.

US Presidential election 2012 swing states — The election will in 2012 for the President of the United States come down to a few swing states – I think the electoral college is ridiculous.

The Issues of the 2012 presidential election

Economy – The primary issue in every Presidential election is the economy. The state of the economy determines who will win. I know hardliners on both sides, democrat and republican shift party loyalty based on economic issues. Most people are trying to provide a life for their family and this issue comes first.

The main economic debate is this:

The Democrats believe in a free market but temper excesses by taxing the rich and redistributing wealth to the poor and middle class. This includes incentives to small business which are the biggest employer in the USA.
The Republicans believe the poor and middle class became well off in the USA because of entrepreneurship and hard work. When big government tries to convince people you need government intervention to micromanage the process, this is the road to serfdom.
Taxes – The Democrats, like President Obama or Clinton, believe in increase taxes to pay government obligations now. The Republicans believe like President Reagan and Arthur Laffer, reduce taxes and this will increase growth and will result in greater revenue. Tea Party and Libertarians like Ron Paul believe cut spending by over 50% as step one. Therefore, what is done with taxes and spending is the major issue as it affects all others. However, it is not just about high or low taxes it is also how we are taxed. Do we have a very progressive tax or more of a flat tax? A flat tax would simplify the process, and better for growth, but is unfair to the poor. What about a negative income tax?
Debt – There is bipartisan support for decreasing the US government debt. Actually now the focus is only on the deficit. The Democrats want to decrease the US deficit by focusing on taxing, mostly the rich and tax cheats. The Republicans want to do this through a decrease in taxes and government spending. The only way to do it is the Ron Paul approach of cut spending greater than 50%, then a balanced budget amendment. Why? The democrats project 20 trillion in debt by 2016 and the Republicans 19 trillion. To me this is no difference, both parties are just games and politics.
Trade – Free trade or protectionism. This is one of the key issues. Should the USA be like China and pursue a more mercantilist policy and help protect US jobs, or should the US be a free economy and focus on developing its competitive advantage. The Democrats focus on protecting the US worker. The Republicans think free trade makes society richer.
Right to work – Should the US government care about issues like the minimum wage and policies to protect workers rights? Or do Workers rights make it more difficult for employers to hire new workers and therefore, hurts workers in the long run?
Unemployment – Republicans prefer monetary stimulus and Democrats prefer fiscal stimulus and Libertarians prefer allowing the market to work naturally. If you want to know more about these ideas try looking at the Keynes Vs. Hayek video.

Financial Regulation – This issue is all over the board. But again Democrats prefer regulation while Republicans prefer less government.
Health care – If the Republicans win big in the 2012 election with the presidential and congressional race, Obama’s health care will be repealed and a Republican version of the Health care reform will be issued.
Social security – One on extreme the government should provide care from the cradle to the grave, new sources of funding will be needed and sought out. On the other side, the New Deal I and II should be undone and social security should be privatized. Either way, the clock is ticking and there is no money in the future. To ignore this issue is a certain catastrophe as our children will not be able to pay for baby boomer entitlements.

Other important election issues:

Environment and climate change –The consensus debate is not is the climate is changing. But which way it is changing and is it man-made or from natural cycles, no one knows.
The war in Afghanistan – Most Americans are peaceful, but have accepted the war as a battle against people who want to attack America. However, the question is why has war not been declared as required in the US constitution?
Military – Some people want a large WWII type military, while others want to bring the troops home and only be involved in conflicts in the USA and believe the military is the largest special interest. The US has troops on the ground in 133 countries, is that too much or should we have more?
Foreign policy – There are two visions for America. One is George Washington’s belief that America is the most important. The second is the policy we pursued in practice, that has a role in the global community promoting US interests and security. Similarly, there is the foreign aid is a small percentage of the budget and most people do not have to make choices with elections based on this.
Homeland security – What are your rights to privacy? Does the government use fear to justify incremental decreases in your personal liberty? Where is the balance between the common good and individual liberty?
Gun control – European no gun model or American right to guns with limited restrictions.
The family – What is a family in 2012? What role does the US have in defining a family or giving citizenship and benefits to non-traditional families?
Immigration – In what way do we restrict illegal immigration? Do we build a fence or do we allow random checks near the border? What rights do illegal immigrants have? Should legal immigration quota’s be adjusted to allow for more Mexicans? If police can check someone 100 miles from the broader this is most of the USA as it will include large population centers like New York and Los Angeles and this means the government can check 99% of Americans just on suspicion. As a side note: When I tried to bring my long-term wife into the USA (we have a child), and I am a born and raised American, it was very hard.
Life – Many people are one-issue voters when it comes to pro-life or not. This is the one issue that the economy is not as important for some people. For some people, they are one-issue voters. The economy and other issues are secondary when it comes to this issue as it has to do with ideas and beliefs. If someone believes a developing baby should be protected, they will not care what the economy is doing as much. These are usually faithful. On the other hand, if someone believes strongly in terminating this development, this is more important than their paycheck, they will vote Democrat.

The US political parties

Republicans

Small government, a balanced budget, low taxes, pro-business, pro-gun, Pro family, Pro-life,

There are four groups of Republicans.

Traditional Republicans – Pro family, Pro-business
Religious – pro-life, Pro family, pro-religion
Libertarians – Low taxes, pro-business, personal freedom
Swing voters – Improving government

To clinch the Republican nomination you need to win two of these groups. For example, Mitt Romney has 2 and 3.

Democrats

Government-run health care and a large social system to provide security for all. Government protection of industries and jobs, protect the environment, anti-gun, alternative families.

Libertarians

Low taxes – small government – high level of liberties – a small safety net. Ideologically close to Republicans but often seen as taking votes from the Republicans. Watch some Ron Paul videos on YouTube.

Independents

More Democratic-leaning but all over the board on the issues.

Other parties include Populous and Protectionist etc.

Presidential candidates

Barack Obama – Obama is an interesting man. He really represents a practical approach to politics. His views are appealing. Despite hard Republican criticism of him he maintains a good image and is liked by the international community. However, the main criticism, whether people know it or not is that he does not understand economic theory. Boom bust cycles are usually caused by an unnatural expansion of credit by the Federal Reserve bank, a disequilibrium in the money markets which cause disequilibrium in the real sector, not a wave of greed by a conspirator elite class. He is a politician that has a sincere desire to change the system. However, the way he changes it is not optimal for the long-run. 49% Chance of winning in 2012. On a personal note, I think Obama will not get re-elected in 2012 as he does not know what is he doing economically. Here are my 101 reasons why Obama will not get elected in 2012.
Hilary Clinton – competent, hardworking focusing on social issues such as health care. Seen as extreme by many as she has a closet feminist agenda. 35% chance of winning the election. But she will not run.
Mitt Romney – The Republican front-runner. Low taxes, small government, pro-family. 45 % chance of winning the election.
Herman Cain – I would love to see an Obama Cain battle in the 2012 election. Cain is a practical real-world businessman while Obama the political idealist.
Ron Paul – Champion of the US Constitution and the little guy though balancing the budget, abolishing the income tax and the Federal Reserve, also stands for transparency in government. Ron Paul is also against the industrial military complex and empire building, where the US is in 135 countries.I will vote for Ron Paul.
Rick Perry – Conservative and commands the Texas advantage, bringing a lot of electorate votes.

Lesser-known candidates but real contenders for the Presidency in 2012

Rick Santorum – Senator from Pennsylvania

On this page on the US presidential election of 2012, I wanted to be objective. However, just so you know where I personally stand here is what I believe in Politically.

My Libertarian views– low taxes, small government, free trade makes countries rich and people happy, being independent and freedom to choose and make your own life in many ways, very proactive help for the poor with a negative income tax replacing most of the State and Federal government. Private prisons, private schools with every citizen given the right to choose the school their child goes to. Generally, reduce the burden of government in every way possible.
My Republican views – Protection of the innocent and respect for all life as life is sacred and from our divine creator. Life is not something that can be regulated by the market or diminished with social trends. Life is divine and needs to be protected and respected. I believe in Family values, I am a husband and a father. A balanced budget amendment is a very good idea.
My Democratic views – I believe in some gun regulation. Many people might object to this, but people are often mentally unstable in my personal experience. I am an American and EU citizen and having no guns here means, few violent crimes. There are some people who just are not acting with the same respect for others and should not carry guns. Protection of the environment as it is a public good. I do not want to debate climate change, it is a pointless circle, but nature needs to be preserved as it is a shared good. Theodore Roosevelt understood this. I have no problem with diverse ethic or social preference, America is a melting pot. Helping the poor though food stamps and education etc. I believe giving every child a chance to compete is good for the individual and society.
My Pacifist views – I believe that life is sacred and to send a child across the seas to fight for some abstract political ideology that does not involve the protection of innocent people is questionable. However, in history, there were times when force was necessary. Wilson and Lincoln understood this in different ways. Wars of imperialism is not America I come from or what George Washington or Thomas Jefferson envisioned.

Who do I usually vote for? I am liberal but in a Libertarian way. What does this mean? My views come from the enlightenment and the founding fathers. That reduces the burden of government and this will help all people.

I am a Libertarian but I vote Republican because I believe as an economist they understand free trade and small government. I think ironically as it sounds Republicans help the poor the most. Think of Ronald Reagan. I am a family man and Republicans protect family values and are pro-life and promote freedom of religion not freedom from religion. I do have problems with the Republicans on many issues. However, life, the family issue as well as small government, low taxes, balanced budget, helping the poor with greater economic freedom are the most important for me. If the Democrats were for life and the Republicans were not, I would be a Democrat. If you want to read more of my views read my view on what makes a bad US President.

Who will you vote for in 2012? Please leave a comment and let me know if I have left anything out of this page, and take this election poll.

US presidential election Poll

[poll id=”5″]

Additional resources to help you make a more informed vote

US election information – Official US government site with a simple to use search and a lot of information about the electorial college.

As the election nears I will be updating this post on the Presidential race so please check back and let me know who you support and why.

Posted

Politics

Mark Biernat

This is my Youtube Channel: EconLessons

Comments

13 responses to “US presidential election 2012”

Carolyn Floyd

Hello,

As a Minnesota resident I found Gov. Tim Pawlenty to be always on the news in the same type of scandal. He cuts budgets like the physical therapy Dept. of Hennepin Cty Hospital in Downtown Mpls., and then forwards ideas to the Minnesota house that he wants to leverage funding for stadiums. We already had the 60,000 seating Dome stadium for football and baseball. We had the 20,000 seating Target Center for the basketball. We had the huge and new St Paul Excel Energy Center for hockey. How many more stadiums can 2 Million population of Mpls-St Paul really support? The news said there are politicians who get financial kick-backs for supporting new stadiums to keep being built.

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1. Mark Biernat
  
  I am glad you wrote this. I did not know that. I think stadium funding is one of the worst investments a city can make.It has been shown to be a money loser and is a basic way to develop a city. I am sure he is not corrupt as I think he is a man of honor, however, his choice in funding sees to be unwise in that case.
  
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J. Patzer

Thanks for the time you put into this site. I used your information to teach my kids about the upcoming elections and the issues at hand. You did a great job providing a non-biased view, while still giving your opinion. Much appreciated!

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Polwatcher

I think right now the main dynamic is shuffling the race into the Romney and non-Romney candidate. The first category spot as should be obvious has been filled already, but who will be the non-Romney? First Bachmann, then Perry, followed by Cain who looks with today’s (Nov 14) polling results to be on the downswing…and not the next one up is Gingrich.

It is almost as much a function of timing as it is of the candidate–time your streak as the non-Romney candidate to coincide with the start of the primaries/caucuses and you have a shot at being the one. Will Newt ride his momentum and stay on top through Iowa? Or will there be an opening for another candidate (Santorum? Huntsman?)

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Political observer from a far

Romney has good looks (well, relatively speaking) and that in politics means something. I think part of America’s infatuation with the Kennedy clan is because of that. So no matter what the polls for election 2012 say, Romney is still the GOP nomine to beat.

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sachin kumar kesharwani

Mr. President you are such a good person. I like you so much, you did all that things which was important for America. You will win my dear. So don’t worry.

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1. Mark Biernat
  
  Like what? I am not saying you are wrong, just be specific and we can talk about it.
  
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plasticmoney888

Like not even reading or knowing about Bills they introduced.
Who actually are the people who engineered such 2000 plus pages monster bills

If no one even bothered to read them, Who in hell is really in charge is my question?

Are Representatives that don’t read Bills representing the public?

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1. Mark Biernat
  
  This is a real problem in politics. Who reads the bills and can understand them. What a bill represents certainly could not be fit on the ‘back of a business card’. Nor does it pass a common sense test of being accessible to the average citizen. Therefore, under this cloak of excess and legalese Washington can hide many things in the creases of the bills mountains of paper.
  
  For democracy, this is not a good thing and perhaps a greater threat than external enemies of our Repblic. Latter lawyers or whoever can exploit these holes for their own advantage, and we wake up one day not with a clear free democracy for the people, but something no one understands, but the bureaucrat, the true rulers of the Republic.
  
  I am not not a doomsayer nor conspiracy believer, however, I am not so naive as to believe there will always be a USA.
  
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Mario

One of the largest misconceptions that I see come election time is that it is all about the economy. How can I say this?

Most people think about the economy because in a capitalist society finances are at everyone’s forefront. Especially in the wake of the easy-credit 90’s and 2000’s. Many people have gotten themselves’ in trouble and are living an indentured servant lifestyle. It is all to easy to focus on the economics of life when in reality it is the non-economical attributes that create value and by extension happiness.

If we are consumed by the state of worrying about our finances than we will be thinking about the economy and finance related worries. And in that state we will also be thinking about what someone else, our boss perhaps, or the government can do for us. This is the root of the deception.

The means must be congruent with the goal. To become successful you must be successful. To be successful you have to function well at whatever it is that you do not the financial aspects of it, save measuring and budgeting. The financial aspects are simply symptoms of a larger issue. This mis-focus(on the symptoms rather than the action), on the financial aspects rather than what you do, causes a similar mis-focus on the societal level. Which if you think about it is just the combined sum of the concerns of the individuals misperceptions.

The state of the economy is not simply something that is good or bad. It is a complex integration of how humans are related to their environments and how that relates to the $. Every single year is different from the last or the next and the state of the economy is a fabricated conclusion or an estimation based on relativity. I’m suggesting that a holistic approach to looking at the economy would take into consideration all the factors that are appropriate to the specific time. It’s a rather complicated equation when you look at something holistically. Each thing is somehow related to the other and all considerations are made based upon how each part impacts the other. This is in contrast to the black and white view of, for example, that it all comes down to the bottom line.

When profits are defined by value then skills and services that are of real value will fall under the law of reciprocity. They will get what they give and be freed from the blame game that is otherwise known as “This presidential election it’s all about the economy”. That’s a complete fabrication and an example of black & white thinking.

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1. Trevor Hunt
  
  This economy is all about the economy or at least should be.
  
  When people look at our economy and see that each year the government spends more than it receives people become worried. Obviously there are many factors that go into the reason why our economy is the way it is but the state it is in right now should be looked at as a bad thing. Not either or. What you say is well written but I disagree.
  
  People seem to think this government can spend and spend and spend and there will never be any consequences for our actions. This is untrue and we are already feeling a big hit. Especially if you make 35 grand or less. Compared to 8 years ago it seems as if everything has doubled in price. Gas, Groceries, Diapers, Cars, Rental equipment, I could go on.
  
  This affect has hampered the lives of so many Americans making it almost impossible to live a happy life when hard work doesn’t seem to cover the bills. There are actual reasons for what has happened to us. How we relate to the dollar within our environments is an empty statement. And everything that effects the economy makes a difference at the bottom line.
  
  What needs to be done is to figure out what is effecting the bottom line the most and fix the problems within our economy. This election and the next presidency needs to be all about the economy and fixing the problems within it before working 40 hours a week won’t be able to pay rent, groceries and gas. Get rid of the federal reserve. Our government should not pay money for money. It makes no sense. Completely overhaul our foreign policy and stop borrowing money to work in other countries.
  
  Again, makes no sense. Reduce the human resources in this country. Let people rely on their community when in need. Churches give food, hospitals give beds to sleep in. I’m not saying the government should not help the needy but there needs to be a cut off so people don’t get complacent on government housing and food stamps. The problem with this country is people don’t look at things enough in black and white and distort things into something else which is what this election will be. The only choice was Ron Paul but that ship is sailed and we are all on a downward ride. The working poor already really feel it. When everything continues to skyrocket we will see what this country is made of
  
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  1. Mark Biernat
    
    It is a pretty establish statistic that when government services increase private donations and charities go down. In Eastern Europe under socialism there were no charities until markets become free. When markets are free people become generious with their time and money. Trusts and donations are set up and we all prosper. So if you do want to help the poor, which we all do, the best way is through free markets solutions.
    
    Obama wants has choosen the path of East German economics rather than West German economics so to speak. Think how poor Eastern Europe was compared to western Europe. Obama knows nothing about economics.
    
    He also insulted the Poles a great ally to the USA this morning and clearly knows nothing about history. I think he is clueless about most things connected to history and economics of this country. Hence we all will suffer with decreased liberties and increase economic hardship.
    
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eslyter

I love being an independent. It prevents people from assuming one thing or the other about my political alignments. The only way a person will get those is if they actually have to listen to my ideas.

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