Categories
Politics

An Economist’s 2020 Presidential Election Guide

This is an objective guide to the US 2020 Presidential election from an economist ‘s standpoint. Since the economy is the number one determinate criteria for people voting on the margin, and will swing election results, I think a guide to US economic issues is relevant. I also have a brief candidate guide to the 2020 election at the end.

The problem is politicians do not understand the issues, and many economists are clouded by political bias. In contrast I do not like politics and will tell it like it is. You can debate me in the comments.

  • I teach college and getting a Ph.D. in Economics with a focus on monetary economics.
  • The following are the issues the politicians and economics will not tell you but are the reasons behind the economy.
  • The election 2020 will come down to two candidates. Trump versus Sanders or Biden. Bloomberg is an elitist and not electable.

Main economic issues in the 2020 election:

  • Worker pay – Medium income is up, but is it?
  • Government spending – We have a one-party system.
  • Inequality – Wealth is up, but for the rich.
  • Taxes – Everyone has their view of what is fair.
  • Unemployment – In the US, underemployment is the issue. A lot of talented people working for peanuts.
  • Inflation – If you define inflation as the CPI, there is nothing to see here, but if you look at the real world, you will see a different picture.

Worker Pay in the US

Real worker pay is an average pay, which is put in real dollar terms when compared to the CPI. However, there are two problems with this:

This is an aggregate number and means nothing unless you look at the Gini Ratio. Also is is fueled by debt when the next crisis comes it will turn down.

The CPI is a narrow measure of prices. They measure only a slice of the pie, with known statistical flaws. Therefore, the defined and measured CPI does not reflect what you are experiencing at home. Hence, your real income might be down compared to your parents. For example, medical and college tuition is astronomical. Real Estate is hardly debatable, for example, my ‘poor’ immigrant grandparent’s townhouse is worth a million dollars today. Even a home built in the 1900s was better quality and had more land than a cookie-cutter HOA homes of today. The average age of first time home buyers today is plus twenty years than it was way back when, and steep mortgage with student debt and credit card debt.

It also does not account for the substitution effect. That is, people are substituting organic or at least locally grown apples with heavily sprayed low-quality apples from abroad (e.g. Mexico and China). With my ‘poor’ immigrant grandparents, everything was organic and local, and the milk was delivered their door. Therefore, it is not an apple to apple comparison for any product. Therefore, using the CPI to measure ‘real’ income is not a factual representation of people’s real buying power.

The number is an average. Since we know the Gini co-efficient is increasing, and this indicates the rich are getting richer and the poor poorer, the question is why? High-income earners skew the statistics. Yes the average is up, but because the super rich have more not the middle class or poor.

You need to be objective and think critically when looking at economic statistics.

In conclusion. even with with the biggest boom of all times, we are about equal in real income to the 1990s if you look at the Federal Reserve data and do not question it like I have above. I do not think we are better off in America considering wealth effect goes to the high income earners and a negative wealth effect goes to Xers, Millennials and generation Zs who are students are highly in debt getting inferior educations and do not have that first home,but do have a long commute. If the bubble bursts then real income will again decrease and veil will be removed from the economy.

Money is the second half of every economic transaction

What can be done to fix the lack of real income growth for the middle class? A large part of the problem with the lack of real income growth is monetary, that is connected to the Federal Reserve Bank. This is abstract and that is why politicians in the 2020 election will not address it. They do not understand it or can not make a campaign slogan out of it.

Can you image the slogan “money is the second half of every transaction… and central bank policy exacerbates the income disparity’.

Both the Republicans and the Democrats support central banking and stimulus policy. Therefore, no matter who gets elected this will not have a large impact on your paycheck. Non free market fiat money is the problem in the economy and without a “sound money” policy you will not get ahead and it will perpetuate inequality and a business cycle. You can debate me on this, but it is true.

For your paycheck to increase, we need to eliminate the Federal Reserve, so actual savings is connected to real investment. No capital goods or real prosperity were ever created with printing paper money.

Low interest rates create mal-investment that distort the capital structure. People who should not get money get money. The money is pumped into the system to keep the aggregate numbers looking stable. But they are not.

President Trump is a little closer to eliminating the Federal Reserve bank than the Democrats, however, it will not happen. Evidence is how he has a few quasi Gold standard appointments to the Central bank.

However, he will not follow through with the elimination of the Federal Reserve as he does not have the courage or understanding too. As much of a maverick he puts himself out there as, he is not, because he the government has a stranglehold on money, but the Democrats are not any better.

All other issues like import restrictions and tax cuts or raising the minimum wage are for economics 101 students to debate. The real issues is we have free market in every commodity except the most important, money.

Government Spending

There is a point soon we will not be able to pay interest on the debt. If Rates rise, or recession, this gets worse.

The debt clock is clocking in around 23 trillion, and this does not include state, local, corporate, or personal debt. Everything around you is funding by debt. With the debt and the deficit, neither party will cut. They keep saying we will grow out of it. I am an honest economist. We will not.

Read my lips. The government cannot grow their way out of the debt bubble. We are in an economic boom and the debt has increased. The boom will stop and the debt will expand.

Do not get upset if I write the truth below. Rather debate me in the comments.

Trump is a Keynesian like Obama and Bush as will be any Democratic choice for President. Trump understand free market economics, but practices government expansion. His 34 Billion dollar increase for more tanks and flamethrowers could have been allocated back to your family.

His spending increases are funneled to the special interest of war. The issues is we do not have a legally declared war.

The Democrats will not cut military spending either. So do not think if you vote Democrat you will get some kind off shift of resources from tanks to food, science and education. It will not happen. You will get an increase in both. Military spending is almost a religion in the US and the drum beating takes advantage of people’s real love for this country. Military spending, if you include benefits, is about 2/3 of the discretionary budget. I am a conservative patriot, yet I am looking at this honestly and objectively.

Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.

5 Star General, President, Supreme Allied Commander WWII – Eisenhower

1984 one party system

Because I am a Patriot I can call this out: The Republic has been replaced by an Empire.

Ancient Rome, the British Empire under King George III or the Russians and Chinese today, spend a fraction of what we do on military in percentage terms.

Defense is when someone invades your country, and congress legally declares war and respects article 8 of the US constitution about a standing army. We have an empire and like England had a mantra ‘make the world England’ with Kind George III. We have a similar mantra to make the world like the US, ‘safe for democracy’. The issue is it is making you poor and the US weak. A country is strong because of its technological advantage. This comes from the free market not government. Debate me on this in the comments as I am a patriot.

If we spend 1 Trillion a year in the US, on science or just give it back to you, we would have flying cars by now and cure countless childhood diseases.

Only Libertarians understand the spending issue, unless someone can show me a candidate in the 2020 election that would cut the military down to the constitutional understanding. Have we become the empire the American revolution stood against?

Spending on social security and medicare are much more complex and beyond the of this article. However, both the Democrats and the GOP have ‘ideas’, yet neither would have an impact, unless it was privatized.

Health care as an economic issues depends on one simple question: Do you believe in social medicine? I do not believe central planning improves what the collective unconsciousness of individuals can achieve.

I personally go aboard for basic health care and pay cash because it is so expensive in the US. Better is to have a free-market health care system in the US and then it would be affordable as the market would create pricing for low and high-income individuals, just like there is a store like Walmart for others. Trump supports a free market in health care.

The Democrats want to make health care their issues as it buys votes. But the reality is, it would make decrease the quality of care.

We are heading towards the debt wall at an accelerated pace. Therefore, for the 2020 election it does not matter as Presidential candidate who is a contender, understands it or is serious about it.

Inequality

When the Central Bank ‘creates money out of thin air’ someone wins and someone loses.

Several factors cause income inequality. A minimum wage increase helps some and hurts others. The primary driver of the disparity in the US right now is the Federal Reserve or the central bank.

This is hard to believe unless you understand the issue.

The primary driver for this inequality that can be easily controlled is central bank monetary policy; that is, there is always a ‘first and ‘last’ receivers of money. The Fed pumps money into the system into 30 select banks, and this trickles down. The ‘first receivers benefit and the ‘last receivers’ do not. This creates inequality. Unless they when they pump money they would instantaneous and proportionally transformer it into your bank account the money of every US citizen, which would not happen, it is an unfair distribution.

It does to the fat-cats and big-wigs as the central bankers twirl their mustaches and drink lemon flavored ice water in cushy conference rooms.

Most people in politics in the US do not understand this. There is always a first and last receiver of monetary policy. When monetary policy is transmitted, this exacerbates the Gini coefficient and creates inequality. The net result is you have the super-rich and everyone else.

Minimum wage or more rules or regulations are a drop in the bucket compared to the problem of money. I would say global competition and other factors are in play, however, the market should level the playing field through arbitrage coupled with increasing opportunities and education for all. Yet, there needs to be something to sustain and perpetuate inequality.

If the US were on a gold standard, income distribution would improve overnight. It would not be a utopia, however, real savings would be connected to real investment, rather than monetary pumping.

The Democrats and Republicans will not address this. Perhaps Trump might if he sweeps congress in 2020. So that would be a check-mark in his favor, but I am skeptical until he makes definitive statements towards this.

However, if you try to redistribute income via the tax system, this results in slower growth for all. This is a Democratic idea. It does help to some extent, but not a long-run solution.

Taxes

Taxes are not the issue; it is spending. I favor a progressive tax system, but better would be to cut government spending 90%.

No nation was ever taxed into prosperity. We need a balanced budget amendment.

Trump made progress by cutting the corporate tax. This does create jobs. However, it is not enough. He transferred it to the US debt. If we cut taxes for the middle class and the impoverished by the same about it might have a similar effect. I would say the Democrats have a check-mark on tax cuts. There are a few candidates that want to balance the budget.

Ultimately we need a balanced budget amendment. Neither political party will support this or they will exclude military from any cuts. They would say yes balanced budget excluding military and this mean that spending on that sector would increase.

Unemployment

This is not an issue in the US for the 2020 election. It will become an issue if the US raises interest rates. What is the problem is everyone is thrilled to get a 15 dollar an hour job. I am getting a Ph.D. in Economics and Finance and 20+ years of consulting experience, and I get paid OK. I know a lot of people with a college degree that are waitresses.

Underemployment is the issue. The solution to have a basic life is debt. You can not claim the economy is healthy if the country is underemployed, worker force participation is low, and debt is increasing. Even me, I ride credit card debt.

President Trump is trying to help this with fairer trade practices. Yet, to some extent, it is the fact that we are now competing with the whole world, there is no way to stop it and it is very competitive out there.

Less people working and the people who are are working for less.

Inflation

In a technologically developing economy, as thing more organized and efficient you should see deflation. To prevent this with an arbitrary target of 2% inflation goal, distorts the capital structure and perpetuates the boom bust cycle as articulated by Austrian Business Cycle theory.

Federal Reserve Bank goals are are contrary to the a free market. Can you image the government setting a goal that every apartment rent in the US should be $1,000 a month? Or oil prices should be set at $3 a gallon at the pump to create stability. Let the markets work.

Inflation is not the measured CPI. It is what you personally experience. Neither party can address this. Prices are determined by the market. In a growing economy, there should be deflation as production becomes more efficient. The Central bank does not allow this to happen and inflates the economy and distorts the capital structure. Prices are up and you are told by the government there is no inflation, but what do you think?

If you want to compare your living standard to the world or others in the US, go here: Cost of living comparison. It is created by actual user data.

Since the conclusion of the above post is neither party, Democrat or Republican has any wisdom on economics issues and only harms the economy generally with spending and debt, then I will vote on non-economic issues. I am an Economist and I see little difference in policy between the two parties. At this juncture, I will vote Republican (life issues) or Libertarian.

2020 Presidential Election Candidates

Donald Trump – The de facto GOP nominee, if the economy is stable he will get reelected. If not he will not. As a rough prognostication, if unemployment is below 4.4% in November of 2020 then Trump wins. If he wins the US Congress Trump, could make changes, but until I see pronouncements such as ‘balance the budget or ‘eliminate the Fed’, I am not overly impressed. I understand he is against a wall of opposition, however, he never declared himself as the candidate that would return the US to small government. Full disclaimer, I will vote for him because of his political stance on ‘life’.

Bernie Sanders – He is the man to beat. He is a well-intentioned individual but a self-proclaimed ‘socialist’. It makes him un-electable. He has charisma. He may have appeal to under 30 voters, but they are the most undependable. If you see France as the ideal economic country, this is the candidate for you. Stirs emotions with an appeal to justice, but it is justice has the cost of surrendering individual liberties. The US with President Sanders would be better off if it was Colonel Sanders than Berrie.

Mike Bloomberg – Part of the New York Elite. He can throw money at the election and gain power. But bear in mind, he will try to do the same for the US. And throwing money at a problem does not solve it at its root.

Joe Biden – Pro stimulus in the 2008 crisis, but also voted for a balanced budget amendment in 1998. Subsequent voting record indicated big on spending. Biden would not be a game-changer for the economy, however, it would not destroy the US either economy either. More rational than Hilary Clinton towards the allocation of scares resources.

Elizabeth Warren – Break up tech companies and regulate the market. Would crash the economy.

Why cannot the Democrats get a life candidate who wants military cuts, free market and is family orientated? For example, even thought I am free market, I do not mind a universal basic income if the waste was cut out of the bureaucracy. For example, if every US citizen were to get $12,000 dollars a year from the government, this would save the US money by cutting other programs.

My Ranking of Candidates for President

  1. Trump
  2. Joe Biden

Libertarian Candidate for the 2020 Presidential election

If there was a realistic Libertarian Candidate for the 2020 Presidential election I would vote for them. With Adam Kokesh and Arvin Vohra as Libertarian candidates in 2020, I do not see their chances as realistic, even if they are idealist, perhaps they are too extreme. Rob Paul is currently the best embodiment of these ideals, though not a candidate. The idea is a belief that humans are innately good and if freedom is maximized society as a whole benefits on par with Adam Smith and the ideas of the founding fathers. In the end it is about making the world a better place.

I will update this post so subscribe and check back. I will watch the debates with anticipation and see if any candidates touch on any real economic issues.

Let me know if you find issue with anything I have written above. The GOP, Democrats do not understand economics from the 2020 election.

Categories
Politics

US Presidential Election 2016

Who will win the 2016 Presidential election?

Update: Trump won. Even if he is not perfect, Clinton would have destroyed America with socialist policies. I do not like Trump’s spending and debt, especially on the military. This will unfold in another economic crisis. However, Clinton would have been worse.  Trump needs to win in 2020 including a GOP control of Congress or America could slip back.

If I were President I would:

  • Get rid of the Federal Reserve and replace it with a gold standard.
  • Balanced Budget Amendment.
  • Bring the troops back home.

It will be a Trump versus Clinton contest.

The main difference between the two candidates are:

  1. Trump knows business and Clinton knows government.
  2. Under Trump, there will be an expansion of jobs and wages.
  3. Under Clinton, there will be an expansion of government and taxes.

I will vote for Donald Trump, as he promotes economic prosperity in America through a free market and individual liberties.  Both Clintons have a track record of public dishonesty and serving foreign special interests.  We are voting for a leader and honesty matters.  Hilary Clinton is being investigated by the FBI and supported by the political establishment. As of October 29th, 2016, that investigation is on.  Donald Trump will shake things up and stand up for the middle class. Clinton will continue to pave the road to socialism. The mainstream media will paint Trump this way or that, but he has ideas about lowing taxes and helping this country that will have a positive impact on your life.

I will not vote for Hillary Clinton as she will continue to drive up to the US Debt past the 24 Trillion marks (which is the point of no return), promote socialistic policies and decrease the security of the United States and decreases freedoms for Americans.

Hilary Clinton aspires to be the Angela Merkel (Germany) of America.  If you like how Europe has opened the floodgate for Middle Eastern immigration and is wallowing in debt, this will be the future of America after the Clinton coronation. Clinton could even lead to a separatist movement as we see in the EU. For example, would Texas ever have a referendum?

If you prefer a street smart entrepreneur who is a leader and has a common-sense approach who will champion people who work and stand up for Americans, vote for Trump. I saw Donald Trump in Saint Augustine, Florida. His sincerity that he really wants to save America from its slide downhill impressed me. His intelligence and down to earth approach was clear. He will make America great again. I voted for him in early voting.

The election polls go up and down. However, Trump will ultimately win based on the issues and the intelligence of the American people.

Hillary Rodham Clinton – Democrat

Pros:
None

After Clinton’s coronation she will continue to trickle Marxist ideologies into the US (social medicine, more taxes, raise minimum wage but not help real wages), flounders on Islamic terrorism and opens the doors for questionable immigration (e.g. Syrians who are mostly men in their 20s with no families or adequate ability for a real screening).

Cons:

The world will not collapse if Hilary Clinton gets elected President in 2016, however, it will not be a better place and I recommend you consider the reasons.

An elitist waiting for her royal coronation – Are you telling me, in all of the US, there is not a better, smarter more talented choice than a career politician and the wife of a former president? She put up with Bill’s cheating so she could get her to turn to play queen and ruler in power. The US has endless amounts of talented women, I have seen them in business and all walks of life, Clinton is not one of them.

Debt – You can not spend your way out of debt. If you are in debt you have to fix the leak. If the USA crosses the twenty-four billion-dollar mark, that is the end of stability. This will happen with Hilary Clinton as President. Henceforth it will become mathematically infeasible to ever get out of debt, and soon the fixed payments like interest will exceed tax revenues.

One solution would be for the US to start printing trillion dollar bills. Of course, we would all be wearing barrels when hyperinflation kicks in.  People do not realize how serious having a Clinton Presidency would be based on the debt alone.  Economists argue that the debt to income ratio (GDP) is what really matters.  However,  if there is an economic downturn the cycle will be exacerbated as this crowds out private investment and drives up the real interest rate.  The reality is except for WWII, which was an exceptional circumstance, debt too income has never been higher. Furthermore, after the war, the US was the only economy that was not destroyed, so we were able to bounce back. Now we compete against the world on a level playing field.

President Obama has increased the debt more than all other presidents combined.  As a continuation of this policy, Hilary Clinton will cause a serious financial situation. If anyone disagrees please comment and speak your objections. I have been a life long student of economics and it is simple mathematics. If you spend more than you have and your fixed payments exceed revenues, this will create financial shocks that have an impact on the real sector. This is a classic Austrian Economics business cycle. However, this time, the end game is bleak.

Inviting more foreign workers –  This equates to decreases wages for Americans. In my workplace, a significant portion of workers are on visa and they do affect wages. Clinton will expand foreign workers in the USA with some lame excuse.

Endless illegal Immigration –  With 94 Million Americans not working and more people living off the system than ever in US history, it will drain America. Why not follow the written laws?

Focused on changing America’s demographics – Immigration focuses on Syrians and Middle Eastern immigrants, countries that do not have a strong democratic tradition.  I believe in democracy and I want to live in a country with others who do also. Heavy restrictions on strong US liberty-loving allies such as Poland.  My family in Poland, to even visit me for a week, in the US have a lot of visa hurdles to jump through. While illegals and Middle Eastern immigrants have an open the gates policy. At the very least more people means more traffic.

Dismantle the Free market – Clinton wants to engineer and control the market, get tough on private initiative and regulate and tax entrepreneurial activity and replace it with government spending.  The factual evidence is her voting record to vote against a decrease in government spending in 2005 and an increase in government spending in 2008. In contrast, I believe anything the government does, free enterprise and people can do more efficiently. Her health care program is just the start of socialism.

Health care  –  Universal health care is a joke. It has become more expensive and did not fix anything. Her healthcare system is good for having you support other people using excess pain killers but does not cover something like ethical stem cells which fix your body. Premiums have increased and more people are living off the system.

Education –  Sees private school vouchers and school choice as a drain on government-run training centers and school.  Evidence of this is her comments in 2015 that vouchers are unconstitutional. Instead of school choice or private and proctorial schools,  Hilary pushes for expanded governmental education. Government training and lofty feel-good words. Clinton does not get that, Private and religious education as well as home-schooling works, the public schools are often a dangerous place to send a child because of the wrong ideas.  Mark Twain said ‘never confuse school with your education’.

Questionable cognitive function –  Although Hilary has a high level of native intelligence, it is my opinion something has changed. I do not write this lightly, but she seems to have clinical deficient associated with trauma or stroke. Observe her carefully and make your own conclusions.  I want someone sharp as our leader.

Bengazi – “what difference does it make” was her reply.  In 2012 Islamic militants overran the American diplomatic compound and Clinton was the secretary of State. I am not going to rehash this, but people questioned her integrity and ability to lead before and during this situation.
ISIS – Does not have a clear policy.

Secretary of State  – What did she accomplish?

Crime and no punishment – Scandals and lies – Think of any TV series drama from ‘Dallas’ to ‘Revenge’ where scandal and lies are the norms and this could be the Clintons. Come on the thing with Hillary’s private email server. How slippery was that? Her husband Bill and Monica Lewinsky. Also consider Mary Mohane, Vincent Foster, C. Victor Raiser, Jerry Parks, Kathy Ferguson, etc., these you can research. I guess before and after her coronation, she is above the law.

Hilary Clinton is an insider – She will offer nothing new to the politics of Capitol Hill.

SmartPower – Failed. Dumbpower – Showing honor and respect to your enemies does not work. Neville Chamberlain before WWII tried this and the result was World War II.

Feminist – In the negative sense of the word.

Bring dishonor to women – If she is the first woman President she could very well have a scandal. Clinton’s signature is doing things that open themselves up to scandal and dishonor. This would not play into the confidence of women in business and politics.

Anti life – Based on her voting record, including US tax dollars, Clinton has the party line to propagate the elimination rather than the defense of the innocent. What was that taxpayer-funded organization selling body parts? Wow, that money would have better been used for something like prenatal nutrition education for example.

Increase the minimum wage – sounds great, but not the solution for a real economy as some jobs are just not worth 15 dollars an hour and someone will have to pay.

Creates division – Too many people despise her. She is not a warm and fuzzy candidate with a middle of the road following. She will polarize the USA. if anything, Obama had a more uniting quality than Hilary Clinton.

NY senator – Promised to create 200,000 jobs in NY but when she left a net of 20,000 jobs decreased

No path to victory with ISIS –  I personally do not like troops on the ground as an American philosophy, which I have seen since I was a child going back to Vietnam and the cost is a high budget, more debt, and loss of Americans. Yet, ISIS needs to be defeated.

Bad Boss –  If you ever had a really bad boss, perhaps who obtain the position by nepotism or just being in the company forever, that will be what it is like rule by Hilary Clinton. The country will have a bad boss.

Donald Trump – Republican

Cons:

Flamboyant big mouth – We know this about him. We know what we get, but he is a leader and will help the US return to real prosperity.

Issues: 1) Stop the US debt before 24 Trillion (point of no return) 2) Stop the flood of illegals, foreign workers and immigrants from high-risk security areas.

Pros:

Not a Washington insider – America you want someone who is not a career politician.  Trump is your candidate.

Simplify the tax code – This alone is a reason to vote for Trump. If you make 50k or less and are married, you pay no taxes.  If you make up to 100k you pay 10%.  I want that. I could put a new roof on my house with the extra money and a new project every year until my house would be good as new. What would you do?

Not enough Americans are working – Despite his non-traditional nature, his focus will be to defend American jobs and job creation. There are two futures for America. One with a creeping unemployment rate under Hillary Clinton and another with a rising wage rate under Trump.

Negotiate with countries for a US advantage – We know how the US has been sold to China and other countries. Trump’s skills in business will reverse this.

Will balance the budget – and start on the path to pay off the debt. Wow, would you not like your debt including your mortgage paid off? It is a real possibility for the USA if we make the right choices.

Pro-life –  Jump up and down and scream if you want, but the defense of innocent life is a real moral issue. It perplexes me that people who defend animal rights are often the ones that are anti-life when it comes to the innocent. I mean come on in the USA so many people would love to have children and wait years to have a foreign adoption.

Trump is an American leader –  standing up for the American people first, in contrast, Hilary Clinton wants to be like Andre Merkel, a leader that is sensitive to even to the world at the expense of the people who she is leading.

Terrorism – Trump will take a no-nonsense approach and stopping the influx of people that are security threats. Homeland Security is more important than diplomatic parleys (Clinton) or military action aboard.

Categories
Politics

Recession this year

The US is 23+ Trillion in Debt, we have pumped money, and the magic show will come to an end. Perhaps at the end of 2020 after the election.

Why?

  • Washington can not stop spending.
  • The Fed can not stop printing money.
  • Corporations are in debt and have used this to push up their stocks.
  •   There are asset bubbles.

Well, I do not like to be the one to spoil the surprise, but there is a brave new world, a new economy is around the corner waiting for the US, and Washington does not have the answers because it is beyond their control.  I am talking about the the great recession.

The blame is on the people of this country who hailed our leader when he speaks in the forum of the “new, wonderful good society” which will the change our country will see, which the people believe will mean he is leading us to  “more money, a easier and secure life for all” while we living fatly of the industrious – Cicero 43 B.C.

  • The good news is the economic balloon has already deflated. Crashes come after bubbles. We now are just stuck in the mud.
  • The bad news is the long run trend line is down because of global competition.
People are looking for political solutions to an eroding economic base. It is like we were a hot tube of water and now with global competition, cool water values are open and can not be turned off.

Democratic strategy – If you liked the lackluster growth of the past four years, hold on to your hats, some excitement ahead, but not the good kind. The financial cliff President Obama will lead us over. If we reach this financial cliff the economy will shrink by .5%. It is simple mathematics. The Democrats want to choke growth by a new taxes, transferring money from the productive to the entitled.

GOP Strategy – In contrast, the Republicans wants to hold the line on taxes to prevent us from sliding back into the 1970s (considered the economic Stone Age by economic historians). However, they are for the Empire.

Which economic scenario will play out this year? – The intoxicating Democratic promises that won the election will bring us to a new reality. When neither the new math or the old math can reconcile the budget and the debt which is at a dizzying high, we will go into another deeper recession in the future. Now this is not for certain as GDP is recovering and progress in the private sector has been made (entrepreneurs will always discover away), the question is is this sustainable? Can we get out of this mud or will it be another year of spinning our wheels?

Moving political chess pieces in the background –  The Democrats and the GOP will fight out the budget which is really about congress and some compromise will be reach somewhere in between regardless of the President. All the power in Washington is about the allocation of the budget, anyway (and the Federal Reserve bank). Symbolically it is a blow that Obama got re-elected, but the President needs the House to really move forward.

However, that being said will any of this really matter if the problem is not only in Washington but we are no longer the big isolated island of the USA, you know the one that was portrayed in the old  TV show Happy Days?

  • The reality is we are in a global market and the competition will only increase as more of the world is educated and connected. The only way to make the US wealthier is to let the markets work by giving entrepreneurs the most opportunity to compete, that is a small government sector and low taxes. We need to pursue more Libertarian economics or the whole country will be left behind.
  • China and India are not as rich as the USA, but that is not the point. The point is, the people there are bright and capable like Americans but get paid at a fraction of the cost. You do the math.

Recession factors

  • Monetary policy – Easing or no easing we have basically negative rates of real interest. This does not seem to help, it is like pushing against the wind. The interest rate environment could not be any better. If the economy is not moving there is a reason, a ghost in the machine. That is the machine of the economy should be working one way, but some speculative unknown force controlling and dampening the actions of economic progress.
  • Fiscal stimulus – Rob Peter via debt, deficit, spending and the tax system and pay Paul.  In fact what if Paul is lazy and Peter is a job creator? Then we have a problem. This transfer of wealth engineered by the brain trust in Washington is not the best idea.  Yet even with turning up the dials in the C+I+G=GDP equation, the machine is not moving in the right direction or in a predictable way. More like a Frankenstein economy.
  • Global markets – Enter the specter, China, India, Latin America, etc.  Why pay you $40/hr (that is an $80,000 dollar a year job when someone abroad can do it cheaper. I am not talking about making toys to be placed in WalMart. Since the Internet and the fast seamless transfer of information, the interconnection of the human brain on this planet a fact, there is a transfer of information and skills without the need for physical presence. Even if you do not feel it or see it, specialization of labor on an intellectual level that does need to hurdle import laws is happening. Jobs are outsourced and someone smarter can do your job better and cheaper. There is nothing wrong with that, it just is the reality of the world, called global competition.

After WWII and with communism, the world was in ruins. In the USA we were all winners and our fathers have secure jobs and pulled in the driveway at 4:30 in the afternoon, they retired to Florida with something called a pension.

Now the world is cheaper and we have more toys, but the job market is not secure and I see a lot of people carrying debt, car payments, mortgage, and multiple credit cards.

What is left in the US economy?

Jobs that can not be exported easily.

  1. Retail jobs
  2. Medical care jobs
  3. Work for the Sheriff’s department
  4. Government workers
  5. Military
  6. Teachers
  7. Restaurant jobs
  8. Security guards
  9. Insurance companies
  10. Bank jobs

The problem with these jobs is they are not creating jobs. They do not create much value, but rather more service. They will not move the country forward.

Sure on Monster.com and Indeed you can find some boring senior analysts positions specializing in vendor software or a project manager, but even those the price has deflated.

So do not expect to search Craigslist help wanted and find that dream job. Take a look at your hometown, does the above pretty much summarizes it?

How to protect yourself from future economic problems in the US?

  1. Smart people always will prosper, you have to just use your creativity, which is almost synonymous with intelligence. Brainstorm, look around you get up early and search the web for hours until you think of some skill or asset you can offer.
  2. Do not think in terms of money but rather enjoying your life. If you think in terms of money, your life will be only a chase for something that takes years to achieve.
  3. Do not put too much hope in Washington, rather create your own opportunities.
Categories
Politics

101 reasons Obama did not save the US economy

One of the arguments Obama supporters say is “Obama saved us from an economic depression”.  They usually say it with a simultaneous gaze to the heavens and a voice tone turned slightly higher. Obama supporters then get a serious look on their faces and in a deeper voice say, ‘Without his injection of 1.5 Trillion dollars in fiscal spending coupled with Bernacke’s monetary policy, the US would be in deep economic trouble’. Or they say in a cliché flip tone – ‘He helps the poor and middle class’.  My reply is ‘because of the Obama bailouts and stimulus we are in trouble, big trouble’.  Are people nuts? Obama nuked the economy.

Please take a minute and scan my list of 101 points below, and spread on the Internet.  They start below the old fashion image.

My immigrant grandparents who lived through the great depression, conveyed, they lived simple happy lives. They did not want to turn the country from self reliance to government reliance. What is Obama doing to the spirit of America? – Can you imagine your grandparents saying ‘ just get some government money’.

  1. One of the top search terms on the web is “How to get government money” – or some variation of that. That alone should tell you something. I discovered this while researching keywords for my political economy website. Is this what you want the USA, the home of the free and the land of the brave  to become?
  2. ‘Just spend’ was Obama’s economic stimuous plan,  then why not spend more? – If government spending really helped the economy, why limit the government at all? Why not just triple the spending Obama has started? Why not increase the debt 100 fold, we will all be rich. Does not work on an individual level, so why would it work on a state level?  Keynesian fairy-tales perpetuated by irvory economist and politician in Washington (the richest area in the country now). You can not spend your way to prosperity.
  3. 500 billion in tax increases is not a balanced approach – Obama claims a balanced approach. Nonsense he partied, now someone has to pay. Well actually it pays for little as in 2012 is 1.1 trillion deficiet according to the office of the CBO. This is the leak in the ship not the debt mind you which is like 13 Trillion. Obama destroyed our future. It weights down on future generations without their consent. Debt crowds out job creation.
  4. A civil service career is now a respected on par with a private charity worker or entrepreneur (which is now a dirty capitalist) –  I polled my friends in school and 3/4 of them believe being a civil servant is a position of honor. In fact, they got excited at the prospect of working for the government, like it was a way to extend their adolescence. One of my friends just dreams about getting a new assignment in the foreign service, can not image her functioning in the real world. I know a lot of people just taking up space in civil service jobs.  Civil servants are mostly for people who can not compete in the real world and want to live a life of ease. I took a letter to be mailed to Poland to the post office today, the guy was rude as anything. Do we want to push this frontier out and create a class of government workers?  We have, the government was the biggest employer in the Soviet Union and not the USA. I saw this when I lived in a post communist country. It takes several generations to get rid of civil servant jobs. Thank you Barack.
  5. Government creates positions not jobs, they create positions that need to be financed by you. For example, in my county of St. Johns  in Florida , according to the chamber of commerce official website, the top six biggest employers by a long shot are: the public schools (3,449 employes), military base (1,300), the county government, (1,206 ), hospital (1,689), a defense contractor (900), and  a state school (650).  That is messed up. The largest private employer has 636 workers . Can you see the difference? Government controls the jobs and they tax private people to pay. In the USA the government is also the biggest employer in our land.
  6. Obama is effective in selling interventionism to America – ‘The players are driven by the spoils which includes power and control over people’. – Bill Butos – Economist
  7. You are working for your neighbors wife – The stimuous is based on helping some, but not others. For example, you work and pay taxes, so your neighbor’s wife can remodel her bathroom on a housing upgrade credit from Obama. Think about it when on your next commute to work.
  8. 147.7 billion dollars increased spending on health care – Gulp. My neighbors on ‘disability’ are drinking it up on cheap beer and smokes. I kid you not. In fact I am paying for it and they are rude to me usually because they are hung over. Is that personal responsibility for health? My other neighbour on ‘disability’ is at the gym pumping iron everyday;  while I have horrible pain in my back, but work day and night. Yet, I pay for his life of leisure.  That is messed up big time. More government more mess I promise.
  9. My wife was a farmer in Eastern Europe, my great grandparents had a farm in Southern Pennsylvania. Even though economics life was not always easy there comes a sense of self-worth from not looking for the government to help you; but rather, growing your own food and living on your own wits. Everyone in the USA can do this. Life has a beautiful quality if you realise this.

  10. The Obama commercials are not true – They paint him as saving the middle class and taxing the rich. Untrue.  He did not help me. We all are taxed  especially the poor and middle class, as the economy is on a long-term slow growth path,  because of the negative externalities of the expansion of government.  Obama looks at accounting magic to promote his position of saving the middle class, but the reality is we are on a long-term slow growth path now, with Obama and that is fact. That will take more from your budget than any accounting tax magic by Obama will ever. If you get a job, a good private sector job, paying 20,000 dollars more a year, created by a job creator called an entrepreneur, who cares about a 453 dollar a year tax savings from Obama. Promote job creators not government ‘bread and circuses’ as the Romans called it.
  11. Why you can not pull the wool over my eyes about ‘poverty’ – I lived in Eastern Europe for a good part of my life,  and the poor in the USA are like the super rich in other countries. The mantra ‘help the poor’ is really a code expression for ‘enrich the bureaucracy’. Sound heartless it is true and look at my next point.
  12. Is it about money always or does liberty have to be factored into the equation of economic success? I mean what would you do for money? Would you sell your body? I would not. Why sell your ideals and the ideals of this country for peanuts to an opportunist politician. What about the ideals of the revolution and the founding fathers? I mean government could achieve full employment by declaring martial law and everyone must dig ditches. Economics is not about some aggregate number. It needs to consider intangibles like liberty.
  13. ‘A thinking persons translation for – Yes We can’– translation:  We = I + Obama’s government institutional help.  In stark contrast I believe:  We = I + God + family’.  What do you think ‘we’ means? Values of dependency replacing self-reliance?  His policies have a huge psychological dampening effect on Americans. In the collective unconsciousness there is a shift from ‘I can do it with hard work and self-reliance’ to ‘you just can not do it without help’, blame is a big factor in this’ Do you know what that will do to the American spirit.  Is this not what Obama ment by ‘we’? We meaning you and him? What about. We meaning ‘I and God and family’? It is a subtle shift but it is happening and people do not see it.
  14. No evidence – What evidence can anyone one give me that Obama’s stimulus created jobs that would have been greater than if the markets were left to adjust?  To be honest you need to compare two economies one free market and one Interventionist. Yes you can create jobs out of thin air, but again Ceteris paribus, is this a better way than simply creating jobs in the private sector? It is not about job creation, but the “crowding out effect” on private economic activity. To say that Obama’s economic plan created jobs, you would have to have two economies side by side and compare (like North Korea and South Korea). One with a free market path and one with the Obama way and track it over a period of say twenty years. However, to say “Obama save the economy from a deep depression” is a reckless statement.
  15. The New Deal did not work in the great Depression, why do you think it is working in the great Recession? Can anyone out there economist or Obama supporter show me statistical evidence? Zero. He gave money to the rich and I pay a lot in taxes and not we have debt. Why not bail out every failing pizza shop? Who is he to play central planner?
  16. Let the markets work– Markets need to adjust, market distortions like government intervention leads to prolonging and deepening of the pain, though non-price rationing.

    Obama economic and political campaign is based on US vs them – make them pay – class divide – It was tried in the Soviet Union. In my personal ethic envy is a sin and yours?

  17. Monetary stimulus is counter productive to long-term economic growth. The Fed’s reckless polices created the Internet stock bubble of the 1990s, the Real Estate bubble of the 200os, the great Depression etc. It has not fixed the crisis here or in Japan after years of pushing against the wind. Why do people still have faith in the Federal reserve?
  18. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act – Looks beautiful on paper.  Even I am dazzled at first glance. Really, more money for the everyone. I really do like the idea.  Answer this question, how is that different from you going out an maxing out your credit cards?
  19. Help the poor mantra of Obama – I did taxes this year for people. I did them for rich and poor and did not see any evidence that Obama helped the poor. He helped the elect or a select few who, but not the poor people I did taxes for, at least not in a meaningful way. On a case by case basis if you were to analysis it, it would have been better to create jobs for people by freeing markets. I only saw the poor, and no help from the government. Did he personally put money in your pocket?
  20. Contrary to the fake smiles on real estate agents faces – The housing market is still over priced relative to earnings. If the his HUD and Federal housing programs did anything it slowed the market adjustment in the housing sector. Deflation is a good things if you are floating in a bubble. In the 1940s some lady working for the phone company as a switchboard operator could buy a house that, you as a professional can not.  I can not buy a house today for my family because of Obama’s housing stimulus. How is that fair?
  21. Aggregate economics vs real economics – Obama’s eggheads advisors are looking at things in aggregate and trying to push out the C+I+G curve on some macro economic model they learned in the 1970s from their Keynesian economic professors. The economy is me and you. When you start to treat it as something to be manipulated it is a dangerous idea and will result in a less just society most of the time.
  22. Ideologically less freedom – Even if the stimulus helped some people by taxing and spending and increased debt the economic policies of Barack took yet another step to erode the personal freedom of the Americans. The USA was founded on rugged individualism, but a welfare state from the cradle to the grave.
  23. Military is no stimulus – Each generation has some old foogie saying – ‘the best to stimulate the economy is start a war’. It is so untrue because eventually you crash and burn and die by the sword. Germany in the 1930s knew they were on this path. They wanted to take a little more time before the war started but economically they were about to collapse.  They start the war to prevent collapse. But what kind of stupid thinking is that. People at home suffered to feed and supply the troops abroad. You create bombs instead of innovation to push out the frontier of technology in the private sector that would actually help people. We now have a generation of huge mandatory payments connected payments to soldiers who are disabled and gave up their lives for what, defending our shores? What a mess. It was not Obama’s fault of course but he did not help anything, rather he continued the Bush-Obama doctrine. Military is no stimulus except for the arms dealers which are called ‘defense contractors’, yeah right.
  24. Debt is a tax and he is raising it on the middle class – He talks about tax decreases but because of the crowding out effect debt is tax and it does have to be paid off. Obama is destroying the country with debt (FV tax). Obama is raising taxes on the middle class by way of increased public debt which is a future payment of tax with interest
  25. Government funding for education helps the economy and our future – Public school teachers are paid more than private school teachers. I went to a public and private school and the education was eons better at the private school. Explain to me how the warm fuzzies Obama generated from ‘spending more on education to help our future’ can explain the above mentioned paradox? Education stimulus would be better spend on liberating the minds of the young by encouraging private not public education. I have taught in private schools and the quality in my experiences is excellent. I applied to some public schools,  the application process is Byzantine and bureaucratic. A lot of forms and papers to show something is being accomplished when I see a lot of students not up to par.  That is my perspective as a teacher on the Obama educational stimulus. Smoke and mirrors to create warm fuzzies and get votes but private education is better and more efficient than public. Home schooled children perform better on test and are not corrupted as much by the stuff that goes on in the public schools. And if you are a parent you know what I am talking about.
  26. NASA and the space program – I love science and space exploration.  Some of my friends are Trekkie to this day. However, what about private ventures for space exploration? Why again does it have to be done through a government office? Why not just nationalize all the airlines? The old barriers to entry connected to capital contrasts at the start of space exploration are gone. entrepreneurs are starting to explore space and they will do it better than the government. Why must I give my hard-earned money, though the force donation system called taxes, to ventures I do not think are efficient. Give me some tax money back and I will invest in private space ventures. Check out Spacex.com
  27. Minimum wage increases – Why? Less hiring and higher youth employment. Obama supports this. Why does the government have to get involved with this basic market price? Like Unions they empower the have, the people with jobs and the ones without are left in the cold. I mean if employers have to pay some high school student over the summer 9.50 an hour to serve fries, then a lot of kids will miss out on the lessons of earning money early on.
  28. Expansion not the privatization of social security – The easiest way to fix social security is to privatize it.Yet like everything else Obama wants it managed by the government. There is now way out of this hole if you look at the math.
  29. With all the talk of government and cleaning up the free market, it is not real– It just makes for more paperwork. SOX and all the added layer of reporting does little in the real world. Regulation does little to stop dishonest people because they work around the law.

    Socialists manipulate your dark side emotions of envy. The dark side leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Be aware of this. You label people as ‘them’. And this objectification makes it easy to feel anger, because it is not longer an individual but a class or group. I believe in the individual.

  30. Government revenue collection is a mess and expanding – What good are laws and talkt, if they are only symbolic?  My rich American landlord who does business all over Europe, I am sure does not pay taxes on overseas income, because he does not report my payments.  Yet, I am a small fish and just keeping my head above water and the IRS audits me. It was fine once I provided more paper, but it is a real lot of work. I think they should focus on the big guys not the little guys who are honest. Or better yet simplify the tax code. A lot of money is being hidden abroad from taxes, companies the rich and little is done. A lot of middle class people paying honestly and rich are not. Obama was supposed to clean this up, but from my research it has gotten worse. The cracks get bigger. Obama’s IRS does not really enforce taxes on the rich and the above is an example.
  31. Federal reserve needs to be audited – The partial Fed Audit reveal 16 Trillion loaned to banks.  This is no small money. A lot of money going to Europe, you know via the banking system, that is your money. The Fed is a disgrace. It manipulates markets and hurts the poor more than Obama’s bailouts can help. It is like the central bank creates the problems then the executive office of the President has to clean it up. Why did Obama not just clean up the Fed?
  32. 5 Billion on modernizing homes for energy conservation – Sounds great, but in reality it means I am paying taxes so my neighbor can improve their home when I do not have one. I am working for another man’s wife. Can you not see how unfair all this is? What sounds good is really taking from the productive.
  33. 90.9 Billion spent on school modernization and pay increases– My daughters elementary school has only Apple computers that I personally could never afford.  Yes I am sure they got a sweet discount, but why spend all that? They have to buy software too.  I use Linux.  It does everything and is free, as is the software. Maybe students should learn more about creative thinking and problem solving, or being frugal rather than create the next generation of kids addicted to gadgets. It seems again like a nobel thing, but it is a waste of your dollars. Have you seen Ubuntu lately? It actually runs faster than the Mac OS by the way and the Firefox browser and Chrome faster than Safari. Is it not better to teach kids to do more with less than have it all and really not change much?
  34. 2 Billion spent to help people buy foreclosed homes from banks – Or the banks could just lower the prices and problem solved.
  35. 7.2 Billion for WiFi public access – I turn my wi-fi off at night as there are studies saying this causes cancer. Why do I have to pay to help pollute the air? Of course people could always go to StarBucks and use it there. But again should government be involved with everything?
  36. Obama is anti-Reagan – Supply side economics works, demand side is lifting yourself up by your own bootstraps.
  37. Throwing money at a problem – is not a very effective way to burn cash.
  38. Heat on full with the windows open – In Boston I rented a place and heat was included. I often had the heat on and the window cracked. I liked fresh air in the winter. Well this is what the government does. I am ashamed I did this but I did because it was a free lunch. It is human nature.
  39. Government multiplier effect vs private multiplier effect – There is reasonable economic statistical evidence to show that government spending has a negative multiplier if you factor in crowding out while private spending has a positive multiplier effect. For each dollar spent in the private sector it is use more for reinvestment while public consumption.
  40. In my town there is one park with 14 tennis courts and 4 baseball fields and always empty  – This is just one park of many and was a taxpayer expense and a small army of people to maintain it.
  41. C+I+G = GDP only in the text books from the 1970s –  That is the Keynesian model of consumption plus Investment plus government expenditures equals our national income is maybe a truism at best but not a prescription to turn up the dials on one of those or else why not just crank up G and we would all get rich?
  42. Deflation is a bad thing myth– This is ta myth perpetrated by those in power. If prices come down we all can buy things cheaper. I will argue any PhD economist on this to the end. It is the market adjusting. If houses were cheaper my family would have their own home, it is so unfair what Obama has done.
  43. Liquidity trap –  Another fear driven Keynesian myth. The IS-LM curve and all, nice models but the reality is if markets are allowed to work, people will take action and work.
  44. Disequilibrium in the money markets can not be corrected with fiscal policy – the Swedish economist Wicksell outlined effect of the misjudgment on the marginal productivity of capital on the cumulative process of price changes the Austrian economist developed this into a theory of business cycles. Monetary disequilibrium can not be corrected by fiscal stimulus if the underlying condition still exists, that is the Marginal productivity of capital is still lower than the money rate of interest.
  45. Rich free market Poland VS government controlled Poland of the past – I lived in Poland and many generation are still paying the price of the idea that government can help the economy. It is almost impossible to get the government bureaucracy to do anything fair.
  46. Obama did not do enough – To have a real impact he would have to have spread the money to every town and household in a meaningful way. Not for select industries and people. He would have had to give every household like 30,000 dollars. This would have made a difference.
  47. Middle Class tax cuts are meaningless – He has plans to cut taxes but they equate to a few hundred dollars per family. Not enough to do much with.
  48. Better than the Obama stimulus would have been to give every person in the US a one year tax holiday. It would have really rocked the economy and moral and would have been cheaper than his stimulus. Many people do not realize how much they pay in taxes, it is not the amount you send at the end of the year, it is taken out of their paycheck all year. You pay thousands in taxes.
  49. Some states are fine while others are in the tank – A lot has to do with state not Federal government. California is high tax and encourage speculation, while North Dakota is low tax and was not so reckless..
  50. Four years later the unemployment rate is high – A lot of people out of work because government polices cause price instability.
  51. Four year later the foreclosure rate is high – I do not see things improving.
  52. Obama has divided the nation – Never good for economic optimism. he betrayed the Liberal ideal and the conservative, he still has supporters but it is a nation divided. This has a dampening effect on the economy.
  53. Stimulus does little to address the real issue of relative competitiveness arround the world – The real issue is China and India are raising and we can not expect compete unless we are better. Fiscal stimulus does not make us better. It makes us worse. In a free market economy you have to be the best you can be and depend on yourself. Only this way through individual initiative and innovation can the US ever hope to compete with a billion hungry to advancement Chinese and a Billion hundred for advancement Indians not to mention the rest of the world. It is all about relative advantage.If the Chinese build a better mouse trap when my neighbor is collecting two years of unemployment than the US deserves to go down.
  54. Statements coming from the Obama are feel good general statements – They have no substance since a market directed by government is a misallocation of resource.
  55. The economy improves in spite of government not because of government. – Government stinks.
  56. Jobs were created but not quality jobs – they were concentrated in old industries like the auto sector, not future technologies. Not high paying long-term growth jobs.
  57. You can not tax a country into prosperity.
  58. Fiscal and monetary stimulus exacerbates trade cycles because of the lag time. The stimulus has an effect latter when it does not need it. It is hard to sync these things exactly.
  59. Prosperity is about four components – Both for the individual and the country –  Creativity, risk, hard work, technical knowledge – By expanding government Obama the way he did maybe pushed out the technical knowledge but not as fast as private people do running their own business, creativity, risk were suppressed as well as hard work.
  60. Too big to fail means  US loses competitiveness – By not allowing  punishing reckless business with market mechanisms – it sends a message to the market that risk/reward is distorted by government.
  61. Chinese – No matter what we do, the China will rise economically. We have to make the more creative and innovate business via entrepreneurship, not government. Government did not create all the gadgets like iPhones reap profits from in the USA for example.
  62. Equilibrium is  achieved at the intersection of marginal productivity and marginal cost – If market mechanisms stray from this, there is a decrease in consumer and seller utility. Utility  maximization is the whole point of economics and yet Obama’s advisors are advising against this via non market forces.
  63. There is no such thing as macro economics –  Yes there is the study of economy in aggregate but miro economic theory is where it is at. Macroeconomics mine favorite is more a study of what is happening not a perception for the policy process. Yet Politicians and egg head economist believe they are operation in the world of macroeconomic behavior. New flash the aggregate is just that a summation, an abstraction.
  64. The economy is me and you  – trading with each other and doing business for good a services.
  65. Government Utopian building – is a dangerous path.
  66. Interventionist central bank policy is part of the Obama vision – Obama sees monetary policy and fiscal policy as two hand working together. The problem is central banking is a 18th century monarchist idea promoted by jolly old England during the empire, not for free societies and free people.
  67. Obama budget has waste and pork spending – I could write a novel on this, the plan is so filled with government pork and waste I can do not want to start to list it as it would get me upset. But you can be assured there are millions going to useless studies and more into people’s pockets.
  68. Obama’s economic plan has a moral agenda– It terminates the life of children before birth with your dollars. Are you OK with that? I am not. Despite what you might say publicly, I do not think Obama really in is heart believes in God, maybe he does but what believer would support such a thing? I think he is a secular atheist and it shows with this policy and disrespect for freedom of religion as manifest in his health care plan.  Further, he even has foreign aid going to promote this abroad. This is one point that will turn many moral thinking people against him.

    What is wrong with being poor and of good moral values? Like my grandparents were.

  69. Obama does not support the micro businesses – I am a small businessman. I went to the government office to see if there was any help I could get. They said no. If I was going to declare bankruptcy, they could get an accountant to help me with excel. What a joke, I am an Excel power user.  But no loans for innovation or anything remotely connected to breaks for me. Nothing, zero. Explain how Obama really supports small businesses. I did pay a ton in taxes and yet we can not afford basic things for my family. The lady at the government office also had a computer problem and I had to show her how to reboot her system. That is help for small business?
  70. Obamacare is the biggest tax increase in world history – That is a fact, will that help me? I do yoga and keep thin and take herbs and I have to pay for my neighbors who sit on the butts getting fat and pop medication and they do not work mind you, is that fair? I will donate to free clinics and private things if I had more disposable income but this is all taxed away. I do go to doctors of course but real cures come from the body naturally or future medicine developed by private people like adult stem cells for tissue regeneration. Not traditional treat the symptoms medical care that Obama care is about.
  71. Economics is about trade offs – You better hope you are on the winning end of the Obama elect. Like the workers in the auto plants, who took my money via the tax system while I can not afford a house. If the auto companies had fallen they would have reorganized into smaller pieces and cars would have been cheaper and you would have less in taxes.
  72. It is really bad out there – I remember living in Poland and seeing woman totally done, with make up and a big car declaring on CNN ‘ it is really bad out there’.  The 1930s was bad. Communism in Poland was bad. WWII was bad. Not some woman who looked like she came out of a spa with perfect hair and makeup and a driving a car that looks like a tank declaring ‘the economy is really bad and we need help.’.
  73. Heartless – Obama’s economic policies are heartless because it favors the landed elite and caters to groups of people who have voting power not the poor.
  74. Military is a job people take –  For me the military is about defining the ideals of the consultation and the US shores.Many peopel join for patriotic reason, I understand and respect this , but now many people see the military and economic opportunity. Further, they come back from Iraq and have to face the job market and it is tough. Obama did nothing to prevent this type of thinking, that is seeing the military as a paycheck job. It is not. The military is not a job it is a vocation for people who believe in the ideals of freedom.
  75. Politicians are still getting paid – If Obama really cared about the economy, what about doing it for a pittance.
  76. When people can not pay the bills – it is a matter of personal money management. One lady told me she had 8,000 dollars a months expenses and really feeling it.  I have about 1,500 of expense for my family a month and do not feel it.
  77. Try fishing and gardening – During WWII people had victory gardens. I do and I fish too. What is wrong with getting your own food like humans did for 1 million years in the wild? I live in suburbia and basically could live off the land and waters. Granted you have to fish, but nothing wrong with that.
  78. Did you mama ever tell you life was going to be easy? – Many people have expectations and they want their needs to be satisfied one way or another. Government or private sector it does not matter. Maybe a little frugality is good for the soul? Maybe we as a society do not have to be so hyper consumptive.
  79. The fundamental problem in economics is scarcity –  However, if you examine your needs most are based on fear and expectations. You do not need that much to live a good life.
  80. S=I That is, not only spending but savings stimulates the economy.  The more you save the more capital is free for investment. Spending like the government did is not the best way. What about work and save?
  81. Protestant work ethic gone  with Obama – Max Weber and all, –  I am Catholic but there is a lot to be said for forgoing current consumption and working, rather than expect someone else to pay for your lifestyle thought he tax system.
  82. Societies with big social programs have small charities – Fact when government is big no one gives. I lived in a socialist country and no one gave to charity, until the yoke of socialism was  lifted. I promise you private charities are better than government programs.
  83. Government is a redistribution enterprise – But is it fair? Why does Obama determine what is fair?
  84. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs were his biggest campaign contributors and these firms benefited from the Obama redistribution.
  85. Secrete economy and government – The Fed operates in secrete, much of the budget no person will ever read or see, rather the accounting is just rolled up.
  86. Individual self-interestis nobler than political self-interest

    Look at the mental diligence of this person. With hard work and creativity anyone in the USA can live a good life. Anyone. We all more than you could ever imagine. Do not believe the Obama propaganda that you need government to help you.

  87. Government is the biggest employer and monopoly in the USA.
  88. Special favors are the way Washington operates – I do not like it. Read about the Austrian school of economics like Mises and Hayek. Contrast this with Marxist thinking.
  89. Obama argued we need good people in government by raising salaries. but I do not want good people in government pushing paper, I want good people in the private sector creating jobs.
  90. Obama argues for more regulation of the private sector because it is broken – But who is going to regulate the public sector, as that is even worse.
  91. 2007 and 2010 Americans saw a 40% decrease in wealth – That is  not a success, do you want more?
  92. 7/10 teens have no jobs this summer –  This is because the Obamaeconomics did not work.
  93. Obama lives in a bubble – talks in sweeping statements in speaches and lives a life of luxury personally. He made it harder for working guys like me make a living in the USA.
  94. I am thinking of moving back out of the country – Seriously I thought it was easier to live in Eastern Europe economically. I could get a job in a week there, here, it takes a long time. That is because we are not really growing.
  95. Zero interest rate policy to banks by the Federal Reserve – Banks use   take speculative investments on Wall Street and not restructuring loans for people like you and me, as Obama wanted. The only people in better positions are not individuals but the banks. Obama has a love relationship with the banks and it does not trickle down.
  96. People who are unemployed often drop out of the work force – therefore the decline in the labor force participation rate is stalling as people are discouraged and give up.
  97. Obama brags how he help float the economy in places like Detroit – My rebuttal is why not stimulate the economy in some old western near abandon mining town from the 1800s. Demographics change, and economies shift. More people are moving south and west not in the rust belt. They are moving for a reason. Why try to influence demographic and economic movements with government money just because.
  98. Obama’s economic policy is an update of the 1970s ideas of an industrial policy – Central planning, Five year plans and industrial policies could never have conceived of the innovation coming from things like the PC, the Internet. We do not need an industrial policy.
  99. Obama is George Bush on steroids – I consider myself a liberal in terms of economics – And Obama is no liberal. He is no centrist he is a central planner. He is tax and spend. He is like George Bush but many times worse. He did more bailouts for bankers and big business than anyone could have imagined.
  100. Obama main criticism of Romney is tax cuts for business – The US has one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world at 35%. If business has more money they will hire and do R&D. This is common sense. Government does not create jobs people and businesses do.
  101. Economic data does not show a recovery – According to the US Bureau of economic analysis – Real GDP is a weak 1.9%, but the trade deficit is huge. Nothing was done with the trade deficit, in fact it got larger. Unless the US can compete by making better mouse traps, then no one will buy our goods and we will be a consumer driven economy on the road to doom. Look at the trade numbers under Obama.
  102. Obama is a socialist – Do not listen to whiny libs that he is not, he is. He expanded government many fold and wants to continue to implement this plan.  How can you argue with that. If you support Obama, than just be honest, you believe in socialist economics because that is what the expansion of government and social benefits means. I believe in freedom and self reliance.
  103. We will all be pressing each others pants at best under Obamaeconomics with a service driven economy of low paid jobs and debt will increase – real opportunity comes when there is a wave of innovation from the private sector and courageous and creative individuals. Do you want that? A country of low paid WalMart jobs. The reason is markets must be free for innovation to happen. That is why the West won over the controlled economies of the Soviets.
  • I challenge any Obama supporter, Mr. Obama himself or any of his PhD economistts to debate me on his economics. They can not. The Obama economic policy, a crude form of hyper Keynesianism is a path to hell paved with good intentions.
  •  Obama’s economic strategy has been ‘just spend’. It is a failure on both a theoretical economic level and practical application.  It is very unfair what they did to the citizens of the USA and you are being sold that he help. He  did not.  My only request is you share this list. We can not have Obama sow seeds into the economy that will grow exponentially like weeds that choke the productivity across the fruited plains of America.
  • If you are poor or middle class read this – Obama’s campaign strategy is to promote class warfare  I am poorer than you most likely and I have self respect and will not fall for Obama’s propaganda to feed on negative emotions like envy (which is a sin) –  Whereas he pits  ‘us vs ‘them’ to divide the country by using a class as the scapegoat. Fact, this was the strategy of the Leninist during the Russian revolution. I am not rich and you have more money than I.  Look, I just moved back to the USA and I am poor as it will take time for me to get settled. I am not for Obama because Obama is no champion of the poor.  More important than a few carrots of government benefits he dangles before you, so you can roll over and vote for him, is the opportunity to have real private sector job in this country. He is not my savior.  I hope he is not yours as he promotes immorality and failed economic ideas.

[poll id=”21″]

Please add your own ideas and personal experiences how why Obama did not save the US economy or just stop by and say hello or to disagree.  I doubt there will be any disagreement as Obama has no understanding of economics.

Categories
Politics

I dont care about politics

When I hear people say ‘I am tired of politics or I do not like politicians or they are all bums and crooks in Washington, I raise an eye brow, you know like Mr. Spock used to do, and say ‘fascinating’.

This is the way I feel:

Washington is ruled by a small elite who has kept our nation in perpetual war and unsustainable debt. These politicians have eroded our freedoms and the dismantling of our constitution. Although,  we as a people of the United States of America may never agree on the small issues, let’s be honest on one big thing, the leaders in Washington have blown it.

  • If you really do not like peace, prosperity and freedom you can always go back to voting the same old Democrats and Republicans back into office, but this time consider something else.

If you stopped giving a hoot about politics maybe you are in the wrong political party? Stop and consider the price people paid to free you from tyranny. Do you want to passively return to those shackles?

 Why people say “I do not like Politics”

Votes do not matter. – They are really saying they feel their vote will not count. My rebuttal is major elections have been determined by a few votes. How can you argue with that? It is kind of like saying, free will does not exist so why do anything. Yes, your vote does matter and there is free will. The 2012 Presidential election will be determined by a close margin.

The next elected official will be no good too – Not true, and evidence of this is a radical difference in prosperity and lifestyle on a state level as determined by the national and local elections.

For example, Massachusetts has social medical care and a high-tech economy based on Boston’s research mecca. California is in a black hole of debt yet everything is expensive. North Dakota is a haven of hard-working people with good government. New Hampshire has no income tax and is prosperous, New Jersey is a high tax disaster and I would not want to live there, it conjures up images of waste and corruption. I have traveled all over the United States and there are huge difference even between counties based on local government. For example, St. Johns where I live has the best schools in the state, low crime and one hundred parks; and on top of that Florida has no income tax, one of the reasons I live here. So elections do matter for your day-to-day life.

Political news bores me – Even me, if I listen to Political news 24/7 it becomes droll. Yet there are so many levels you can look at politics from reading Plato’s views on justice to Adam Smith’s political economy of enlighten self-interest,or why Marx was wrong based on his understanding of value. Do you know what Jefferson said about taxes or Washington’s real view on religion in government? Do not stop at the superficial treatment on the news.

Better is to study original sources, and develop a personal ideological compass. Hence when you hear news and debate your lens of interpretation will be richer. You will become in short time an expert that will surpass people around you in awareness of the issues.

Consider how the ancient city states of Greece governed or the what the Democratic republic of German was about. If you think politics is boring, it is because you have fed yourself a steady diet of political junk food and your sense have become saturated. Consider reading websites and commenting on which have diametrically opposite views of you.

Everyone is an expert out there and pointless to discuss anything – I do not claim to be a genius or an expert on many subjects, these terms are devalued today. But if you do a little reading you can surpass Obama in understanding of political economy, because most people have a superficial understanding of things like money and markets, armed with a little bit of original source knowledge and creative thinking, you can run circles around them. Political economy is a very interesting subject, and you do not need to be an expert, just a normal person who studies the issues.

God loves common people, that is why he made so many of them.  –  Abe Lincoln

Others say, people hold such strong emotional views and can not be swayed. Untrue, I have changed my views and others. It is like we are one cell in a whole collective unconsciousness. When you debate with your neighbor it makes a difference. Think how the pendulum has swung back and forth and the general course has changed history. Dare to take a stand.

It is fun, for example, I believe in such radical things as the elimination of the Federal reserve (primary cause of economic cycles), the Federal income tax (drain on the economy) and transforming the US military from the largest employer, with millions collecting paychecks and benefits and WWII type mentality of tanks and battleships and overseas wars to a small high-tech force that focuses on defending US citizens. It is fun to be in the conversation.

  • I like to read articles from opposing parties for example, it is refreshing for my brain circuits.

If you still say I do not care about politics why not be libertarian?

Perhaps this is the real point of the article, if you do not care about politics consider the Libertarian party, because in the words of Ronald Reagan, Government is the problem.

If you really in your heart do not care, I reply, ‘then you are a libertarian’. If someone is tired of the nonsense of Washington politics and believe that it is a waste of time, or politicians are fake and self-serving, than maybe you are not too far from being a libertarian. If you feel voting is a waste of time, with a bit of apathy, why not just vote libertarian.

In one sense, the libertarian party is for people who do not care about politics. Also read  What political party am I? and Why I am a libertarian.

Granted lp.org will not win a major election anytime soon; but it takes one person to start a revolution. Every vote is counted and the more voices, history records this and people take note.

Votes, even losing votes, are important and it influences the whole.

If you are not much into politics, in the 2012 Presidential election if you do not like politics consider a party other than the Republicans or Democrats, even if it is a protest vote.

 

Categories
Politics

Would you hire Barack Obama?

Do you have a job? Then, take a minute and think how hard you bust your hump at your place of employment.  Think what it takes to keep this position. You are there because of years of practical experience and real world struggle.  My question is, if you are in a real job, that is, in a free market competitive environment, would you hire Barack Obama as one of your employees, from the oodles of resumes in your e-mail box?

I mean if you could hire anyone you want, to help you in your current job, would it be Barack Obama?  Than why would anyone vote for him?

When you apply for a job – remember every interviewer is basically looking for the same person. That is someone hardworking, creative and shows initiative and will do what it takes to get the job done.  For example,  I hired someone with music background for an accounting position because I knew that person could do the job.

Whatever profession you are in, would you hire Barack to be your wunderkind and transform your workplace? The guy makes a nice figurehead for those with pent up collective guilt, but he is milk toast.

Obama could not develop a creative idea that would impress a department of IT  geeks nor reconcile spreadsheet to add value to an accounting department. Maybe he could maybe work in a small HR department, like the character Toby in the TV show the Office. Yeah that might work. However, Barack Obama is not an expert in anything. And beign a real expert is what the workplace is about.

Jobs Barack Obama could do

  • Used car salesman – This is a good job, and he could be a salesman of autos as he is likable and persuasive. I mean George Clooney is secretly in love with him.
  • Teacher – I think he would be OK in teaching some political theory class with no real world practical application. Of course the students would have to a skull full of mush after a semester with him. It would take years for the students to deprogram from his class, by the real world school of hard Knox, before he would be exposed as useless.  However, his ‘resume’ would get him hired.
  • Golf shop associate – I could see him working in a golf course, he is well-travelled, friendly and good-natured and a reasonable athlete, maybe as a caddy.
  • Radio announcer – Not the debate type where he would have to think on his feet, but doing voice overs or on a light music program like Delilah.

Jobs Barack Obama could not do

  • Entrepreneur – Starting something with intellectual capital using his own creativity rather than connections and handshakes and people lending him capital. To have intellectual capital, you need creativity. I do not see this spark manifest in him.
  • Accounting or finance – The man could not balance a budget if he tried. He has disgraced the country by driving us into and endless void of debt that will crowd out private initiative for th next two generations.
  • IT – Beyond downloading iTunes apps, I can not see him programming C# or designing.
  • Not for profit – I think he believes in social government, in fact I know it, so I can not see him working for anything that involves free will giving. People exercising their own liberty and freedom to do good for others is not what he believes, that is why we have government to force it. He took the Nobel prize yet did no great contribution for anyone. What a zeak.
  • Medical – I would not let him operate on me. I medical care requires both compassion and technical expertise. I think he as the former but a limit ability for the latter.
  • Business leader – He is public sector man. Some people call him lazy, I would just say that I can see him in some cushy job in public service with lots of vacations, but the real world no way. Can you really see him in a competitive environment with a large degree of accountability and anything that requires real hard work?
  • Physical labor – He would not know how to do any skilled work like electrician, and does not look like he has worked a in the real world like at a hustle and bustle company like UPS.

Why can I be this way about work? I am the author of this article, and I could do the above. I worked hard physical labor to pay for my school (economics) and have disc problems as a result. I worked at companies like UPS and Price Waterhouse, in the  IT field and write my own software starting my own company with my own creativity; also working in business leading fiance and accounting teams for large companies. I am poking fun at him for a reason, he has not earned my respect and I would not want him in my department or hire him. Think about your own life work, and compare it to Obama, never having a real job.

So my question is why the heck do people want to see Barack Obama lead the greatest country on earth, if they would not hire him to be a leader or worker in most professions and does not expect as much from himself as you expect from yourself when it comes to balancing your budget, working and paying the bills?

 

Categories
Politics

Social state vs. Multi generational households

Many people write me hate mail saying I do not understand. Without the social state people will suffer. They rant how I am heartless.  I think quite the contrary, it is they whose eyes are closed and hearts are aimed at promoting greater human suffering. Their rants give them feelings of moral superiority because they feel more compassionate than I. I think that is a premature judgement on me.

My wife stays home and cooks all our meals. It saves a lot of money if you know how to cook and grow your own vegetables, and you do not need the government and can live on little money

Government is replacing family

I grew up in the USA but lived a good part of my life in Poland.  I lived under basic economic conditions and physical challenges, that most people in the USA will never understand, yet I was happy. I never expected anything from the government and paid my taxes; to that giant black hole like out of a science fiction movie consumes everything.

Grandmother at the farm are the ultimate in daycare. Both enjoy the experience and memories.

I think the foundation for life starts and ends from the cradle to the grave, not with the government but with something called family. If people argue for government assistance and the extension of government, I would counter them by asking, what about believing in family, an extened multi generational family if you will. It worked for one million years of human evolution, and in the animal world, why must we throw it out and replace with government cradle to the grave?

My wife’s family has four generations in the same household farm-house. This is the way it is done in places without a large governmental social state money pouring down from the capital. Families stay together and take care of each other. What is so wrong with family care instead of government care?

Great grandmother and child live in the same home and take care of each other. Why is that wrong?

Where family does better than government

  • Values – The old and wise teach teenagers about moderation and unconditional love. For example, values like in Amish communities or Eastern Europe like in Poland are at the center of life, and are transmitted by the parents, mostly by the mother at home. The kids from these subcultures in my observation are pretty polite nice kids.
  • Economics – If a family member is out of work, there is always a home for them. Even in my family, I have two brothers and two sisters and a lifelong childhood friend, and they are always invited to stay with me as long as they need as well as my wife’s family if they were ever in economic trouble. I could not ever imagine a scenrio where my daughter is not welcomed in my house. I could live with my wife’s family without any question. My wife’s sister’s husband lived with them for ten years while they built a house next door (paid in cash).  Friends and family take care of each other, not the government. What is so wrong with that?
  • Health care –  In Eastern Europe you can pay the doctor directly cash and it is very cheap compared to the screwed up system of US Medicaid and disability and insurance billing which inflated everything to dizzying highs. If someone is sick, family members take care of them. Nursing homes are unknown. People die in their homes with their families. I personally wonder if some people are euthanized indirectly in the USA, in these places to save money; in my experince I think so. Home is a wonderful place to be, a system  it is not, rather a place of love and acceptance. I personally do not have health insurance. I pay cash. I also do natural things to stay healthy like excerise/yoga, diet and vitamins/herbs, for me they work. I also believe in science and think adult stem cells are the future. But none of these things are covered by national health insurance. Instead, I am paying for my neighbor, who is on disability, yet an hour ago I saw haul a case of beer out of her trunk. I pay for her medication while, I have to sweat and do Bikram yoga. I go to the doctor they want to do a CAT scan (high radiation) not an MRI because of insurance. The doctors here, when I mention some treatments in Europe, they arrogantly chuckle, as they have rigid guidelines and regulations. I think family care and free choice is the way to go, not more government.
  • Parents – Why does government policy support single families at the expense of families that are together? Not to go into detail here, but the government promotes indirectly the break up of families. More people than not I know are from broken homes now. Maybe it is trendy or easier. I can not image me ever leaving my wife. I mean cheating or arguing or whatever, you stay together for better or worse. Luckily my wife and I get along perfectly and do not do that, but if people have children what about staying together?
  • Family or government? – Governmental ideas of promoting the greater good only sound nice from the mouths of politicians, but in practice impoverish us all.  On the other hand, families on all levels is warmer, more compassionate, fairer. Government is unfair and causes society to disintegrate (for example the USSR) and has caused generations of humans to suffer. Even democratic governments create endless wars, bailouts of banks, money transfers to people who do not deserve it, banking system that creates economic tsunamis and ignore good hard-working families. Why? Because they have blown their load (debt) on the former. Multi generational households or Family is a better solution than government.

Taking care of yourself and living a rustic life can be one of the most fulfilling experiences and you do not need the government and will stay lean and fit in the process. My wife's family farm in the backyard and old cart.

What is your vision of the USA? A country which is family centered and compassionate or large debt, bureaucracy and restrictive laws which creates perpetual dependency until we are all dragged down into despair?

Categories
Politics

National health care is bad – a personal experience

With health care people are looking at the benefit side, like it is all free. The real story is, it cost more than it helps. Let me explain.

Must read – Examples of how government health care fails

This is the way I see it. The people in my condo complex, living in the unit below me are on disability and smoke two packs a day and I think drink too. The lady down the street is also is taking money from he government and has free government medical. She has 1/2 million in the bank, a house paid off worth 350,000 dollars and out in her yard gardening. Explain to me how, I working my tail off and using my creativity has to pay for their health and benefits, when I have a family to support?

  • More people than you can imagine, cheat the system a little and it is unfair and unjust

I beg someone to explain that do me?

When I prepared taxes this season for extra money, I saw repeatedly the same type of thing. People who were in better health than me, collecting from the government and benefits connected to medical. I have health issues and I pay insurance, would go to the free clinic or pay cash. I do think medical care needs reform, but man, enter government and you enter abuse like I mentioned above. Not a little but a lot.

Instead of a blanket plan from Washington, it would be better if people including state or government agencies supported and helped medical clinics for the poor. This is a free medical clinic in my town of St. Augustine, Florida. It covers everything except surgery of course.

A personal lesson in health care and cost

I have had a brain lesion, just bleeding in my pons, nothing serious. It has caused me great pain and suffering. But the truth is nothing in conventional medical care helped, except in the diagnosis. I will not die from it just a pain in the neck so to speak. On the other hand, the natural things I have tried have helped a lot. I had to try natural healing for savings of cost. I take things like anti-oxidants and exercise and do yoga and breathing for pain. I go to the doctor when needed, but change in diet and lifestyle worked magic in reducing the symptoms.

In contrast, my friend who has something similar has more money and is taking the VIP route, takes high-powered medications and considering a gamma knife. He is addicted to the medication and waiting for his doctor to heal him. I think after several years now I am healing he is not. Explain this to me? Throwing money at an issue does not solve problems.

Think of all the people who got spinal fusion twenty years ago,  and now the conventional wisdom is to exercise,  unless you are crawling into the doctor’s office.

My point is, when people take more responsiblity for their own personal health, it is better for them and for the system.

My experience in a socialist country with medical care

I lived in socialist Europe and I admit, I like some level of healthcare for the poor and children, but it was horrible care. Silver filings for teeth and high radiation x-rays for the brain instead of safe MRIs. It was poor medical care in almost all cases, with exceptions. The people were rude and the care was all procedures and documents. I felt lost in the maze.

In contrast private health care was clean and cheap. The US needs reform, in terms of market reforms not government reforms. The more free market it can be the better as the cost will be less.  Think of perception contact lenses and how the price has fallen with less government, as has phone charges. Remember the old days?

How much does medical care cost if you shop arround?

I had ten staples in my head from a fall, and it cost be 35 dollars to get it removed.  That is not a lot of money, from a doctor who spent 45 minutes examining me and from a good clinic, I paid cash.

I mean explain to me how these people get away with it when I have health issues and I work my butt off?  Because when the government gets involved it is not good for the health of the individual or the nation. I try to do natural healing and take care of myself, while the people on government health smoke their lives away and never leave the house except to get more cans of brew-haha. It is unfair I pay and support their actions.

I did just get a 1,300 dollar bill from the hopsital and will have to think how the heck I can pay that.

Government regulation slows or stops healing

Another example is, I can not get medicine from Europe I might need because of the FDA. The drug I need works and is effective, but the FDA for some reason keeps it out. The neurologist in Europe that prescribed it really saved me.  He was an Army doctor who treated veterans with injuries from shells in Iraq.  He was an amazing doctor. He was a very old doctor, by the way and worked out of his living room. A guy like that would be retired in the USA or could not do business in his house. Dr. Grzgorz Gardela is a genius and in less regulated Europe in the private sector, he really helped people.

I went also to the best University government supported hospital and they did nothing.

If I need to get that drug again, I need to jump though a lot of hoops in the USA because of the government, I called  a score of government offices until I gave up. In Europe in th private sector, it is a lot easier for whatever reason. I think it is politics. I know it is politics.

National health and personal health free market solution

Nothing beats taking care of yourself for health care. Yes we can have a safety net for the real poor and children, via a negative income tax or something.  I mean of course if someone has something horrible, help them. But also promote free medical clinics. There is one down my street and they do dental also. But treating illness the old fashion way with regulation, and government payments, is not optimal for your health or the health of the nation.

If we introduce social medical care, think of all the people who will milk the system and in a sense hurt themselves. It will happen.

Categories
Politics

Guns or Butter

The old political economic argument of guns vs. butter has come to the forefront of the 2012 election.  Those running for President, did not use those terms, but this is what is going on. I was watching the GOP debate last night and I almost fell off my chair when I heard, the GOP nominees say they will dismantle Obama’s social programs, but not touch the holy cow of the military.  I do not think that will win them many votes, but whatever.  It is their election to lose. What people do not realize is the problem with the guns or butter issue is it is not that simple. It is less of an either or than you think.

Looking back at history, countries from Spain in the 17th century to Germany in the 1930s, countries that spend a lot of their GDP on military and financed it with debt, dug their own graves. They lost both guns and butter. Countries that peacefully focus on their own problems like Switzerland or Sweden enjoy peace and prosperity.

  • The GOP will replay the 2008  election, when John McCain said: “we will stay in Iraq 100 years if we have to” – this GOP Neocon arrogance does not inspire any warm feelings in me, I do not know about you?
  • Interview on War or the economy by Ron Paul is well worth listening to on anti-war.com

 

It is actually quite simple, if you choose guns over butter you will have neither.

Military tends to be a wasteful special interest and the US government is not looking out for you personally

This post is about why I believe in homeland defense, not empire building.  It will  clarify the guns vs. butter argument. Why I believe patriotism is not about beating militarily drums of war, as much as defending the constitution, economic prosperity at home and encouraging free market innovation to keep our technological security edge. I am not against defense, I just think national defense is different from military expenditures, which is something inefficient, wasteful.

  • Let me illustrate, my friend who is a computer contractor with the US Navy in Jacksonville, earns three times what the average American makes, does not even know how to open a zip file (sorry if you do not) and still uses Internet Explorer 7 (sorry if you do).
  •  When I was attacked overseas, as an American citizen, I did not feel I got super support from the State Department.  Therefore, I am unconvinced that defense of US citizens is synonymous with large conventional armies in the Middle East or the government is watching out for you . They watch out for themselves.

I also think the 15,000 people who die in crimes in the USA are more than those who die in domestic terror attacks. Maybe it would save more US lives to amp up the local police more than hunting people on the other side of the world? If they really cared about US citizens they would care about crime in the USA.  Further, one of the GOP nominees said something to the effect, we should stamp a green card to the passport of foreigners with Masters degrees if they wanted to come to the USA, so we could continue to attract the best and the brightest.  What about just focusing on the education of US citizens than attracting foreigners, if you cut the military in half you could fill the universities of young Americans with free tution.  I think if you analysis the guns or butter argument you have to ask yourself what evidence do you have that Washington has your best interests in mind?

The term ‘military intelligence’ or innovation at least, is a contradiction in terms. Currently we do use some cutting edge technology. However, to achieve that cutting edge it is coupled with ridiculous waste. My father was the Treasurer for a defense contractor ( United Technologies) when I was growing up and I in retrospect saw how much of a special interest that was. The problem is, the economy is different now then the 1960s, and I do not think the current economy can support that type of business as usual defense contractor special interest.

 Basis of US foreign policy

Our foreign policy is based on control the whole world by looking under ever stone for a terrorist. This can not be done, as there are too many people, and we will go bankrupt trying. Better focus on our own shores. Defend the USA, not try to make the whole would the USA.

Something that everyone knows but is afraid to say is, a lot of our foreign policy is based on Israel. I am for the defense of Israel if attacked and have good feelings toward the Jewish people. Very much so in fact. I just believe that Israel has proven time and time again they can take care of themselves. And us meddling and dictating in the micromanagment of the Middle East is not in your personal interst as a US citizen. Look at Egypt. We supported the last regime for 30 years and pumped them with arms and money, and now it is civil war.

We stir up bees nests in the Middle East and choose sides when we should be minding our own bees wax. When I was in Palestine most of the people were poor and friendly and welcoming. They did not impress me as ‘the enemy’. When I was in Israel I felt they were a little more heavy-handed.

People say we must support Israel at any cost, because they are a democracy. My reply is this:

  • Why? Sure we can help them if attacked but like Ronald Regan realized when he pulled out of Lebanon, Middle East Politics is an endless quagmire we do not want to be sucked into.
  • The Obama-Bush doctrine of preventative Middle eastern Wars – is nonsense, it stirs up trouble and anger more than helps Americans, does it help you personally?
  • Israel has a questionable human rights record. – read up on it.
  • Is the USA a democracy and is our mission to spread this to the world? I think the USA is a Republic. The word Democracy is not even mentioned in our Declaration of Independence, Bill of rights or US constitution, check this. The US was based on protecting the citizens from government, foreign wars and entangling alliances, if you read the original documents you will see this. Most Americans do not understand what this constitution is about, and they would gladly surrender their rights to usurpers of the law in the name of security. I would not say our manifest destiny is to spread ‘democracy to the world’. As an American citizen I am pledged to defend the US constitution, the highest law in the land, not a Middle Eastern country who has spied on us and even involved in a questionable accident like the USS Liberty. America should stand up for Americans.
  • Ukraine is a democracy and ally but do we care they just put Yulia Tymoshenko in prison for ten years in a kangaroo court and human rights are violated? We the USA have a double standard.
  • Is our view of the Arab nations like our view of Native Americans 150 years ago? How would you feel if foreign soldiers were in your backyard imposing their ideas of how you should live?

I the best way to be a patriot in the USA is to focus on homeland defense and economy, not Pax America, trying to be the British Empire of the 19th century.

If we want security, defend the constitution and promote the free market and stay out of Middle Eastern politics and let science and technology lead us into battle rather than ground forces.

When I hear the Generals complain that we are at our weakest since WWII, that pure nonsense. They are barking not at cuts in military but a deceleration of the rate of growth.

Guns vs. Butter is an economic phrases that represents is a simplification of the economic tradeoff between prosperity at home, focus on the family vs. military expansionism. It is a choice that every empire has to make. The Soviet Union choose guns and the economy collapsed.

The great free market leader Margret Thatcher said:

 The Soviets put guns over butter, but we put almost everything over guns.

Look who won the arms race and why. Economics and innovation determine long run security.

There is also a trade-off between personal liberty, freedom,economic growth, prosperity and innovation at home or guns around the world. The result and my thesis is:

 Any civilization that falls behind economically and with innovation (which comes from the free market) will fall behind in terms of security and the ability to defend its citizens, then collapses or their national security is really at risk.

What is happening to the USA now economically? Has there been any great innovation in the last ten years?

The spokes people representing the ‘Guns’ side (Many people in the GOP) use perpetual fear to keep people believing that we need a security that is a blank check for the military, your money.

Newt Gingrich promised the American people:

 All of Us Will Be In Danger for the Rest of Our Lives

He is a Orwellian Machiavellian. The GOP will lose as the Universe will not let that happen, to have such a war monger in office.

I think it is a bit more complicated than simply dismantle Obama’s social programs and replace it with military as the GOP has suggested. I think we need a strong economy and free market innovation that will keep us one step ahead of the enemy. The militarily as it exist today is a WWII mentality of ground troops and submarines with innovation because we still have some economic juice left. But the innovation comes because we have money. What if the money runs out?

  • If the economy collapses I can tell you what will happen with innovation, it will slow down, if it has not already.

The GOP Noe-cons always says ‘ they will drop a nuke’ in one of our cities if we do not spend more. And if it happened deep down some of them would be saying ‘see I told you so’. They would feel hurt and pain of course, but another side would say ‘see I told you so’.

I say they will nuke a city if our economy collapses and we can not afford to stay cutting edge technology. They will drop a nuke if we are in 150 countries in the world and choose to play the dangerous game of Middle Eastern politics. We can not have a Camera in every person in the world’s house. Further, let’s be real, to construct a nuclear weapon and detonate it in an US city is next to impossible, a dirty bomb maybe or a biological weapon maybe, but a real nuke is hard to build and get the material for.

 Why the US should focus on butter over guns

Here is the reality. We need to maintain a strong economy so we can have a technological edge and prevent this from happening. Building more attack subs or trying to control the whole world is not the way we do it. It is a war based on technology and international intelligence and this is fueled by free market innovation.

Coupled with the fact that we should not be involved in Middle East politics like we are, that is the reason they want to attack us, because they see the US as invading their homeland. Shocking but true.

Why do the terrorists not attack Japan or Iceland or the Swiss or the Swedes? These are rich free countries? Maybe it has to do with the fact that we behave like and empire.

The 9/11 attack was not caused by lack of military spending, we had lots of submarines in the ocean, it was lack of awareness of who the enemy was and their motives.

 Know thy enemy Sun Tzu – The Art of War

Many people jumped on Ron Paul for saying this about 9/11, but he was not saying that the victims caused the attack, not at all! He said something to the effect the attack was partly motivated because we act like and empire, fight undeclared wars, support political assassinations etc. This is what the Terrorist themselves said.

 Know thy enemy Sun Tzu – The Art of War

Bin Laden stated that the objective was to wear down the USA in a war of attrition. Are we playing into their hands?

George Bush said ‘they attacked us because of our freedom’. What an idiotic statement.

 The term Guns Vs. Butter

The term Guns or Butter was first used by William Jennings Bryan in his resignation from secretary of state under Woodrow Wilson, however, it had another history.

Living in Poland many years and at my University studied a lot of history. What many people do not know is why War II started when it did. What was happening in Germany in the 1930s?

The truth is the Germany economy in 1939 was on the brink of collapse. While everyone was singing praises of the party that was keeping Germany safe from the ‘ Jewish threat’, the economy was on the brink of failure. The economy could not maintain its military expenditure. Yes it was a classic boom and bust cycle brought about by government and a crazy evil leader.

Germany’s militarization was causing a grand fiscal expansion in their industrial military complex. He was keeping people on the military payroll and paying benefits and the arms makers were profiting. But that leader knew this the economy could not go on like that forever and felt war was the only solution to keep his political machine going before the economy collapsed. It did not cause the war of course but, they needed the war to keep their economy from collapsing.

So the political spokes people for that nation started to make statements about security from the ‘Jewish threat’ and the Bolsheviks and anarchists.

We can do without butter, but, despite all our love of peace, not without arms. One cannot shoot with butter, but with guns. Guns will make us powerful; butter will only make us fat – Hermann Göring

For me, that is another politically manipulate simpleton speaking.

I prefer the philosophy of security through innovation and an economic strength. I do not believe in politically playing like Otto Von Bismark did with realpolitik , that is politics based on practical rather than moral considerations. In contrast, I believe in the US constitution.

Two last thoughts on the guns vs. butter argument

  1. In your household do you spend 25 to 50% of your budget on security? What if a business did this, it would have little disposable income for R&D or anything else. This is not life it would be a basic existence and this is what many in the USA have, just go to Walmart and look at the people shopping there.
  2. Although I think religion should be kept out of politics, and it is distasteful when people in politics use religious language,  I can not help thinking that the Bible says ‘he who lives by the sword will dies by the sword.’.
  3. ‘What good is one gains the world but loses their soul in the process’.
Categories
Politics

Economics of US militarism

The Soviet Union was a super power in terms of military and spying, but economically is was burdened with debt and the economy collapsed. Now the USA is no Soviet Union, but lessons can be learned. This post argues the economy of the US is being destoryed by American militarism.

Lets first take a look where the US is spending your money with the deployment of US military troops that subsidies foreign economies. The US is in more than 150 countries around the world.

The following deployments of US military do not include defense contractors and private firms which cost the US tax payer a fortune, but are hidden costs. Nor do they include the Spy agencies like the CIA which have secret deployments and high, almost unlimited budgets.

These are rich countries that have been getting free rides for years and strong lobbies keep your dollars floating these rich countries, that frankly only love our money not us. US ground soldiers stationed to protect rich countries.

  • Germany 54,198
  • Italy 10,771
  • UK 9,346
  • Japan 40,178
  • South Korea, 28,500
  • Bahrain – 1,894
  • Spain – 1,483
  • Belgium – 1,234

Middle Eastern Countries on the other side of the world with US legions.

  • Kuwait 10,548
  • Turkey – 1,511
  • Iraq – 49,000
  • Afghanistan – 103,700
  • Bahrain – 1,894

Of course there are more. We are in 150+ counties in the world.

I have heard we going to build up our military presence in countries like Australia, Poland. There is GOP talk of war with Iran.

There are many more countries that make up the 150 + countries the US is in. Each person stationed cost you money, a lot of money. Is this the foreign policy George Washington envisioned?

The US no longer fight wars of defense, but wars of aggression. Is this not the same behavior the American colonies rebelled against?

George Washington warned against entangling alliances, foreign wars and his economic policy was more libertarian than Republican or Democrat.

During Soviet times, my wife who is from Eastern Europe said:

The last thing they cut was the military, national police and spy agencies. They would cut all social programs and medical benefits, help for the disabled, education, before they would cut the military.

This is exactly what the United States is like. Despite promises to the contrary, the military and CIA and other defense agencies have only grown and largely unaudited. There is even talk now of war with Iran if needed.

In the Union (Soviet), the generals would be riding in nice cars with a staff, everything was under the shroud of secrecy and for the protection of the citizens, because of threats internal and external, but we all knew the real story. Government was the problem. The idea that they were protecting us was simply not correct. Newspapers in our mainstream media like Pravda (the truth) did not highlight the fact that the military was bringing the economy down. While we were firing million dollar missiles in Afghanistan, the Average citizen was worried about day-to-day economic survival.  It was the military that precipitated the collapse of the Union.

Alas, in the end we were grateful, as the weight of that industrial military complex brought the fall of the tyranny and the Union as the economy could not longer sustain a military empire around the world. The Union is now a footnote in history.

  • Will America collapse? Many people think the USA will last forever. It will not. The only question is will it be a 250 year, footnote in history or looked back on as a shinning example of morality, an experiment that will last for a millennium.
  • Many people think the Roman Empire fell because of barbarian invasions, but the reality was when the Republic centralized to an Empire, management became too complex, internal conflicts, bickering, civil unrest, then economic problems, weakened the Empire so it could not defend itself. Economics always determines strength.

I know people do not see it this way, as the military is held in such high regard in the USA. However, it is what is weighing down economic growth. It is the ultimate crowding out effect. That is it displaces resources and bright young minds to be diverted to non productive activities and siphoned off economic capital that would have been used for the next start-up or medical breakthrough.

Without a strong economy we will lose our edge and that is the real security threat. Aggressive US foreign policy, causes hostility in the world and  inspires new legions of terrorists who use more radical weapons to replace the terrorists we shoot.  I mean the Swiss or Icelandic nations or even Costa Rica or Sweden or Japan in the modern world or the New Zealander or Canadians do not cause strong emotion and resentment like the USA. What is the difference?

Congressman Ron Paul  from Texas explains in his book Liberty Defined:

The United States is an empire by any definition, and quite possible the most aggressive , extended and expansionist in the history of the world. Do we really find it shocking that some people in the world don’t like us?

When 9/11 struck, the Commander and Chief of the US and President George Bush explained to the American people and the world that

these crazy people must have hated us because of our freedoms.

I personally find that explanation a little hard to swallow as the world is more complex than that.

Why I do not believe the US is looking after its citizens best interest

The party line in the USA is we spend trillions and drive up the debt to protect American citizens. Yet if this is true, explain to me why when I was abroad and attacked as an American, the State Department, in my impression, was more concerned about smoothing things over than finding the truth, until I really pressed the issue. Maybe the idea of protecting American citizens has nothing to do with the Federal government, but rather more about perpetuating their own bureaucracy?

Eighty billion dollars are spent on spy agencies to ‘protect the American people’. Possible secret financing by the Federal Reserve, with loads and guarantees to our friend to assist empire building, is unconfirmed but would not be surprising.

Money spent by the CIA and other security agencies receives virtually no oversight by the U.S. Congress. When problems results as a consequence, the military is frequently called upon to bring about order and congresses is coerced into supporting the efforts for supposed national security.  – Ron Paul – Liberty Defined

Why do we maintain an empire at horrible expense to the American people? Here are some ideas which are floating around Washington.

  1. Fear keeps the perpetual the need for government protection – People believe danger is lurking around the corner unless we fight every coroner of the world. It was true in Vietnam in the 60s and it is true in Iran today. When I am in Moscow, I can spot Americans a mile away, they often are looking over their shoulder, thinking they are in a strange wild country and anything could happen. Who are they some oil magnate? Generally the streets are safer in many parts of the world than any US city. Fear not reality is what motivates extreme behavior. Fear is what keeps the people in line and voting for more global wars.
  2. Spread our goodness to the world – Some Americans believe we are spreading democracy and goodness around the world. I personally find that strange since a more efficient way would be giving money to help sick and hungry children. What about the idea of spreading democracy? Hmm, are we are a democracy or a republic? I went to the State Department website and saw a statement that said something like, ‘these are the documents original documents, for the world to see, that support the idea of our great democracy’. I looked at the documents and the were the Declaration of Independence, Bill of Rights and the US Constitution etc. None of these documents contain the word democracy. These documents are all about protecting the rights of citizens, from oppressive governments. So before we try to beat the drums of war with spreading democracy to foreign nations, our leaders need to understand US history. Also maybe not all nations in the world share our history and culture and we should not try to force it on others with military occupation. What if foreign solders with a different ideology from you, were stationed in your town, who would you feel?
  3. Secure supplies of oil – I recall that when Rush Limbaugh the conservative political commentator announced the Kuwait/Iraq war was about the free flow of oil for American citizens to protect the American lifestyle. I was shocked he was trying to be honest. This modern-day mercantilism requires the protection of our trade routes and natural resource is a policy that makes no senses. In the long run the price of mercantilism and empire building is just too high. Every empire that tried it from Spain to Japan declined. We could just pay for the resources we need like Iceland does. The natural resource model for expansion makes no sense. The WWII Japanese were trying to build the East Asian co-prosperity sphere. When they felt the reproduces for their expansion was being limited they tried to expand their control with the military to secure control over the resources.
  • Whatever the reason the result is we have a worldwide presence of American troops. This cost you, your economic life as well as bread resentment towards Americans around the world. I have traveled in the Middle East. People do not resent you personally, they are usually welcoming, they do not like US foreign policy.

The German philosopher George Hegel wrote:

The world is a war of ideas.

The war in US foreign policy is this. The Republicans want more of the same 20th century foreign policy, more guns less butter. The Democrats say they are different, but continue business as usual.

Whoever wins the election 2012, social programs will be cut before the unaudited secret spy agencies like the CIA or the Military are looked at. This is a recipes for disaster. Short sighted general do not understand economics wins wars. Obama I will not vote for because, he is a continuation of Bush foreign Policy. If the US wants to keep spending money in this way and funding it with debt, the USA is heading for bigger trouble.

Many on the right who endorse the preventative war mentally of overseas aggression are sincere in their belief that this effort is required to defeat the enemies of liberty. They refuse to see any connection between a policy of perpetual war and the loss of civil liberties at home. They believe their own rhetoric. This deception only facilitates big government, deficits, and the dimishment of individual liberty they say they are fighting to preserve. -Ron Paul

Is a vote for Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich a vote for yet another unfunded war of choice, this time with a nation, Iran, three times as large and populous as Iraq? Mitt says that if elected he will move carriers into the Persian Gulf and “prepare for war.” Newt is even more hawkish. America should continue “taking out” Iran’s nuclear scientists — i.e., assassinating them — but military action will probably be needed.  – Pat Buchanan

One more quote to consider in this next election.

He (King George) has waged cruel war against human nature itself, violating its most sacred rights of life and liberty in persons of a distant people who never offended him. – Thomas Jefferson

On one hand, the USA is a superpower, and rich, not like the Soviet Union. Yet on the other hand when I am in Wal-Mart in anytown USA it does not look like we are a rich superpower, except for those connected to the bureaucracy of Washington, the military contractors or the people the government is helping bail out. Of course that is not universally true and I am be dramatic but it is to make a point.